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PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ID · Market cap 4.0T IDR

PB PT Blue Bird Tbk BIRD · JK
Price1,630 IDR
Fair Value4,283 IDR
Upside+162.8%
Quality52/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.7% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: Medium Range 2,998 IDR – 5,466 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +4.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 163% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (2,998 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (2,998 IDR to 5,466 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,909 IDR 721.30 IDR Fair Value 4,283 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 721.30 IDR – 1,909 IDR · fair‑value band 2,998 IDR – 5,466 IDR · the 1,630 IDR price screens below the 4,283 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) currently trades at 1,630 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,283 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 162.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Blue Bird Tbk generated revenue of 5.9T IDR at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at 931B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 2,998 IDR (bear case) to 5,466 IDR (bull case); at 1,630 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 163%, BIRD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 2,230 IDR 2,521 IDR 4,530 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 1,968 IDR 2,325 IDR 2,884 IDR 72
Growth-Adj P/E 2,998 IDR 4,283 IDR 5,568 IDR 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1,728 IDR 6,843 IDR 9,295 IDR 54
Lynch FV 1,693 IDR 2,419 IDR 3,145 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 1,693 IDR 2,419 IDR 3,145 IDR 46
EPV 1,968 IDR 2,325 IDR 2,642 IDR 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 4,002 IDR 5,337 IDR 6,671 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 3,240 IDR 4,320 IDR 5,400 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 3,240 IDR 4,320 IDR 5,400 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 3,448 IDR 4,616 IDR 5,783 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 5,162 IDR 6,901 IDR 8,639 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 2,446 IDR 3,517 IDR 4,588 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1,241 IDR 1,662 IDR 2,481 IDR 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 2,230 IDR 2,521 IDR 4,530 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 1,968 IDR 2,325 IDR 2,884 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2,998 IDR 4,283 IDR 5,568 IDR 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (4,320 IDR) versus Asset-Based (1,662 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 5.9T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.5%
Net margin 10.7%
Return on equity 10.0%
Free cash flow −939B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 5.5
More key figures
Operating margin 10.5%
EPS (TTM) 249.93 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -6.2%
Net debt 931B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Blue Bird Tbk provides taxi transportation services in Indonesia. The company offers taxi services, car rental, and shuttle services; charter bus services; and logistics services. It also provides advertisement solutions. In addition, the company operates hotel and resorts. Further, it provides outsourcing services.

Full company description

PT Blue Bird Tbk provides taxi transportation services in Indonesia. The company offers taxi services, car rental, and shuttle services; charter bus services; and logistics services. It also provides advertisement solutions. In addition, the company operates hotel and resorts. Further, it provides outsourcing services. Additionally, the company is involved in auction activities, as well as engages in automotive business. PT Blue Bird Tbk was founded in 2001 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Blue Bird Tbk reported revenue of 5.7T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +26.6%/yr. Reported net income was 636B IDR in FY2025, compounding +201.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.7T IDR
Latest YoY
+13.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.8%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Revenue +26.6%/yr
FY21 2.2T IDR
FY22 3.6T IDR
FY23 4.4T IDR
FY24 5.0T IDR
FY25 5.7T IDR
Net income +201.3%/yr
FY21 7.7B IDR
FY22 358B IDR
FY23 453B IDR
FY24 585B IDR
FY25 636B IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −2.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share −0.4 pp

of which total revenue +0.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp

EBIT margin −5.4 pp
Tax rate +0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Blue Bird Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BIRD

Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside +163% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.24× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.65× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.69× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.42× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 28
FUTURE 58 · sector 20
PAST 40 · sector 31
HEALTH 88 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $301.75 $144.60 -52%
CSX Corporation CSX $49.41 $12.85 -74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.91 $35.00 -62%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $128.22 $92.63 -28%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $327.47 $117.90 -64%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $259.71 $144.80 -44%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.82 ¥5.65 +17%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.65 ¥9.53 +69%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.85 ¥6.24 +29%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 167,700 KRW 125,182 KRW -25%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4,283 IDR versus a price of 1,630 IDR, about +163% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BIRD?
Our model-based fair value for PT Blue Bird Tbk is 4,283 IDR (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 1,630 IDR.
What is the quality score of BIRD?
PT Blue Bird Tbk has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD)?
PT Blue Bird Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BIRD?
The net profit margin of PT Blue Bird Tbk is about 10.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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