PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · ID · Market cap 4.0T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +4.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 163% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (2,998 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (2,998 IDR to 5,466 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 721.30 IDR – 1,909 IDR · fair‑value band 2,998 IDR – 5,466 IDR · the 1,630 IDR price screens below the 4,283 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) currently trades at 1,630 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,283 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 162.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Blue Bird Tbk generated revenue of 5.9T IDR at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at 931B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2,998 IDR (bear case) to 5,466 IDR (bull case); at 1,630 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 163%, BIRD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (4,320 IDR) versus Asset-Based (1,662 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Blue Bird Tbk provides taxi transportation services in Indonesia. The company offers taxi services, car rental, and shuttle services; charter bus services; and logistics services. It also provides advertisement solutions. In addition, the company operates hotel and resorts. Further, it provides outsourcing services.
Full company description
PT Blue Bird Tbk provides taxi transportation services in Indonesia. The company offers taxi services, car rental, and shuttle services; charter bus services; and logistics services. It also provides advertisement solutions. In addition, the company operates hotel and resorts. Further, it provides outsourcing services. Additionally, the company is involved in auction activities, as well as engages in automotive business. PT Blue Bird Tbk was founded in 2001 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Blue Bird Tbk reported revenue of 5.7T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +26.6%/yr. Reported net income was 636B IDR in FY2025, compounding +201.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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