Allbirds Inc (BIRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $53.4M · ISIN US01675A1097
What is Allbirds Inc really worth?
Allbirds Inc
BIRD · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 563% above our fair value of $0.3800.
As of Aug 28, 2026, the fair value of Allbirds Inc is $0.3800 per share against a price of $2.52, so the fair value sits 85% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from $0.4100 to $0.3800 (−7.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.2500 to $0.4800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $2.21 – $577.80 · fair‑value band $0.2500 – $0.4800 · the $2.52 price screens above the $0.3800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Allbirds Inc (BIRD) currently trades at $2.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3800, implying the stock looks roughly 563.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.14 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $2.52 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1100, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Allbirds Inc generated revenue of $143M at a net margin of −53.4%. Revenue declined 30.5% year over year. Net debt stands at $13.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.2500 (bear case) to $0.4800 (bull case); at $2.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −85%, BIRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($1.14) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (69).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Allbirds, Inc. provides footwear and apparel products in the United States and internationally. The company offers a range of lifestyle products for men and women, as well as footwear and secondary apparel, such as classic tees, sweats, socks, and underwear.
Full company description
Allbirds, Inc. provides footwear and apparel products in the United States and internationally. The company offers a range of lifestyle products for men and women, as well as footwear and secondary apparel, such as classic tees, sweats, socks, and underwear. It sells its products through its e-commerce and third-party marketplace site, distributor and third-party retail partners, and physical retail channels. The company was formerly known as Bozz, Inc. and changed its name to Allbirds, Inc. in December 2015. Allbirds, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allbirds Inc reported revenue of $152M in FY2025 versus $277M in FY2021, a compound −13.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$77.3M in FY2025.
BIRD screens 563% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX | 240.90 PLN | 189.78 PLN | −21% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $135.12 | $84.95 | −37% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$37.20 | HK$15.24 | −59% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $228.55 | $118.41 | −48% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $258.56 | $143.65 | −44% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,990 | ₹709.49 | −76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $120.81 | $299.63 | +148% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$140.07 | C$70.30 | −50% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.60 | $36.44 | +77% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $80.97 | $92.88 | +15% |
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