Aritzia Inc (ATZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aritzia Inc stock C$178, price C$157, upside +12.9%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$21.02 – C$173.20 · fair‑value band C$118.92 – C$230.91 · the C$157.39 price screens below the C$177.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Aritzia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and sells apparels and accessories for women in the United States and Canada.
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The company offers activewear, blazers and vests, dresses, intimates and shapewear, jackets and coats, jeans, lounge wears, pants, bodysuits, tanks, shirts and blouses, shorts, skirts, sweaters and cardigans, sweatpants, sweatshirts and hoodies, denim, and sweat suits, as well as t-shirts, and tops.
It also provides accessories, such as bags, belts, hats, scarves and ties, and socks; and sweat fleece and shorts; graphics; leggings; and bra tops.
The company offers its products under the Aritzia, Fred Segal, Babaton, Wilfred free, Reigning Champ, The Super Puff, Denim Forum, The Group, Golden, Little Moon, Sunday Best, Ten, Tna, Wilfred, Contour, Crepette, Sweatfleece, The Effortless Pant, The Limitless Pant, The Lodge Pant, Everyday Luxury, and HomeStretch brands.
It sells its products through digital channels and boutiques. The company was formerly known as Aritzia Capital Corporation and changed its name to Aritzia Inc. in August 2016. Aritzia Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Aritzia Inc (ATZ) currently trades at C$157.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$177.62, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$109.23 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$157.39 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$26.29, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$118.92 (bear) to C$230.91 (bull), the price of C$157.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aritzia Inc reported revenue of C$3.7B in FY2026 versus C$1.5B in FY2022, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$382M in FY2026, compounding +24.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap C$18.8B (≈ $13.4B) Large · P/E ratio 31.3 · P/S ratio 4.33 · EPS (TTM) C$4.96 · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 44.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8% · Operating margin 18.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 13%, ATZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$118.92Fair Value C$177.62BullC$230.91
Price C$157.39 · Upside +12.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$3.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+59.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+59.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.7% vs 30.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 14%
2026 sits 96% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.2% a year for the price and +13.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business demonstrates moderate pricing power through margins and ROE, yet thin public data restricts firm conclusions on durable competitive moats.
Main risk: Ultra-low-price platforms such as Shein could capture more customers in the contemporary segment and force Aritzia to lower prices or accept thinner margins on its apparel.
Bull case: Aritzia could further diversify suppliers, strengthen its owned-brand differentiation and use AI tools for faster design and marketing to maintain pricing power against low-cost rivals.
Bear case: If low-price platforms and tariff-driven cost increases intensify, Aritzia might lose share in its core US market and see sustained pressure on margins from both cheaper alternatives and higher input costs.
Aritzia posted another quarter of strong revenue growth driven by surging US sales and accelerating digital channels, prompting management to lift full-year guidance. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the momentum from new boutiques and online initiatives keep delivering outsized gains, or will the larger base and competitive pressures lead to slower expansion?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)44.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)18.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)44.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aritzia Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Aritzia Inc (ATZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$177.62 versus a price of C$157.39, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ATZ?
Our model-based fair value for Aritzia Inc is C$177.62 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$157.39.
What is the quality score of ATZ?
Aritzia Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$177.62 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$118.92, optimistic scenario C$230.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aritzia Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$177.62, about +13% upside versus a price of C$157.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$118.92, optimistic scenario C$230.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
Aritzia Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$4.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aritzia Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATZ use?
Our models discount Aritzia Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.73, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aritzia Inc that is +21.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aritzia Inc (ATZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aritzia Inc grew +34.0 % a year. The price currently implies +21.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aritzia Inc (ATZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aritzia Inc (+21.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.90 %: that much free cash flow Aritzia Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aritzia Inc it is C$177.62 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of C$157.39. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aritzia Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ATZ trades below its calculated fair value: price C$157.39, fair value C$177.62, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$157.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$177.62). For Aritzia Inc the two are C$20.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aritzia Inc worth?
The market values Aritzia Inc at about C$18.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is C$157.39; our models calculate a fair value of C$177.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATZ?
Our models span a range for Aritzia Inc: cautious scenario C$118.92, base C$177.62, optimistic C$230.91 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price C$157.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATZ?
Aritzia Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$177.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 35.6. Other multiples: P/B 13.8, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 21.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aritzia Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 44.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATZ from its 52-week high?
Aritzia Inc trades at C$157.39, about 9% below its 52-week high of C$173.20 and 67% above the low of C$94.11 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$177.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aritzia Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aritzia Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price C$157.39, calculated fair value C$177.62 (+13%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATZ calculated?
We run Aritzia Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$177.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Aritzia Inc currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was C$157.39. Our model-based fair value is C$177.62, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aritzia Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range (C$118.92 to C$230.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Aritzia Inc (ATZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Aritzia Inc grew +25.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.8 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aritzia Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
The market capitalisation of Aritzia Inc is C$18.8B (≈ $13.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aritzia Inc is 4.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
Earnings per share at Aritzia Inc are C$4.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
The net margin of Aritzia Inc is 13.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aritzia Inc is 44.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aritzia Inc is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
The operating margin of Aritzia Inc is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
Revenue at Aritzia Inc is growing +44.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aritzia Inc (ATZ)?
Earnings per share at Aritzia Inc are growing +204% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aritzia Inc (ATZ) carry?
The net debt of Aritzia Inc is C$404M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026