Aritzia Inc (ATZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$17.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from C$70.30 to C$87.26 (+24.1%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$109.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$21.02 – C$173.20 · fair‑value band C$64.81 – C$109.07 · the C$142.80 price screens above the C$87.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Aritzia Inc (ATZ) currently trades at C$142.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$87.26, implying the stock looks roughly 38.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aritzia Inc generated revenue of C$3.7B at a net margin of 10.3%. Revenue grew 32.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.1%. Net debt stands at C$404M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$64.81 (bear case) to C$109.07 (bull case); at C$142.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 120% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -39%, ATZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$117.07) versus Asset-Based (C$7.63). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aritzia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and sells apparels and accessories for women in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Aritzia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and sells apparels and accessories for women in the United States and Canada. The company offers activewear, blazers and vests, dresses, intimates and shapewear, jackets and coats, jeans, lounge wears, pants, bodysuits, tanks, shirts and blouses, shorts, skirts, sweaters and cardigans, sweatpants, sweatshirts and hoodies, denim, and sweat suits, as well as t-shirts, and tops. It also provides accessories, such as bags, belts, hats, scarves and ties, and socks; and sweat fleece and shorts; graphics; leggings; and bra tops. The company offers its products under the Aritzia, Fred Segal, Babaton, Wilfred free, Reigning Champ, The Super Puff, Denim Forum, The Group, Golden, Little Moon, Sunday Best, Ten, Tna, Wilfred, Contour, Crepette, Sweatfleece, The Effortless Pant, The Limitless Pant, The Lodge Pant, Everyday Luxury, and HomeStretch brands. It sells its products through digital channels and boutiques. The company was formerly known as Aritzia Capital Corporation and changed its name to Aritzia Inc. in August 2016. Aritzia Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Aritzia Inc reported revenue of C$3.7B in FY2026 versus C$1.5B in FY2022, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$382M in FY2026, compounding +24.9%/yr from FY2022.
ATZ screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aritzia (TSX:ATZ) Stock Looks Reasonable Despite A 4.6x Gain
- Is Aritzia (TSX:ATZ) Cheap Or Fully Valued On Its Growth Narrative?
- Aritzia tops Q1 earnings estimates, raises full-year revenue outlook
- Aritzia Price Target Raised at RBC, TD Following Q1 Results
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
| Boot Barn Holdings BOOT | $164.32 | $128.55 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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