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Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Brookdale Senior Living Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Jun 23, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US1124631045

BS Brookdale Senior Living Inc logo Thin data Jun 23, 2026

Brookdale Senior Living Inc

BKD · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $33.51 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.8% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$16.77 $2.35 Fair Value $33.51 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.35 – $16.77 · fair‑value band $25.13 – $33.51 · the $11.17 price screens below the $33.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. owns, manages, and operates senior living communities in the United States. It operates in three segments: Independent Living, Assisted Living and Memory Care, and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs).

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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. owns, manages, and operates senior living communities in the United States. It operates in three segments: Independent Living, Assisted Living and Memory Care, and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs). The Independent Living segment owns or leases communities comprising independent and assisted living units in a single community that are primarily designed for middle to upper income seniors. The Assisted Living and Memory Care segment owns or leases communities consisting of freestanding, multi-story communities and freestanding single-story communities, which offer housing and 24-hour assistance with activities of daily living for the Company's residents. This segment operates memory care communities for residents with Alzheimer's and other dementias. The CCRCs segment owns or leases communities that provides various living arrangements, such as independent and assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing; and services to accommodate various levels of physical ability and healthcare needs. It manages communities on behalf of others. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

Stock analysis

Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) currently trades at $11.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.51, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $25.13 (bear) to $33.51 (bull), the price of $11.17 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Brookdale Senior Living Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$263M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.6B · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8700 · Net margin −8.4% · Return on equity −437% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.5% · Operating margin 7.5% · Revenue (TTM) $3.0B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at 200%, BKD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $25.13 Fair Value $33.51 Bull $33.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA $0.5500 $6.23 $11.91 58
All 1 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.5500 $6.23 $11.91 58

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 28
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 4/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.0% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.2% (2020) → 0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 258 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.19× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.28× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 42

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $438.12 $592.64 +35%
Fresenius SE FRE €45.57 €34.54 −24%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 227.50 SAR 109.45 SAR −52%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $262.06 $399.58 +52%
DaVita Inc DVA $183.72 $255.97 +39%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,836 ₹2,908 −67%
Fresenius Medical Care AG FME €39.30 €71.28 +81%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥8.07 ¥10.86 +35%
Encompass Health Corporation EHC $122.76 $96.51 −21%
Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH ₹1,057 ₹284.87 −73%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Brookdale Senior Living Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BKD

Frequently asked questions

Is Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.51 versus a price of $11.17, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BKD?
Our model-based fair value for Brookdale Senior Living Inc is $33.51 (as of Jun 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.17.
What is the quality score of BKD?
Brookdale Senior Living Inc has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.51 (as of Jun 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.13, optimistic scenario $33.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Brookdale Senior Living Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.51, about +200% upside versus a price of $11.17 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $25.13, optimistic scenario $33.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
Brookdale Senior Living Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Jun 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Brookdale Senior Living Inc it is $33.51 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026), against a price of $11.17. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Brookdale Senior Living Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 23, 2026, BKD trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.17, fair value $33.51, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BKD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.51). For Brookdale Senior Living Inc the two are $22.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Brookdale Senior Living Inc worth?
The market values Brookdale Senior Living Inc at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Jun 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.17; our models calculate a fair value of $33.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BKD?
Our models span a range for Brookdale Senior Living Inc: cautious scenario $25.13, base $33.51, optimistic $33.51 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026, price $11.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BKD?
The PEG ratio of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Jun 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Brookdale Senior Living Inc (as of Jun 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BKD from its 52-week high?
Brookdale Senior Living Inc trades at $11.17, about 33% below its 52-week high of $16.77 and 39% above the low of $8.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Brookdale Senior Living Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Brookdale Senior Living Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 23, 2026: price $11.17, calculated fair value $33.51 (+200%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BKD calculated?
We run Brookdale Senior Living Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Brookdale Senior Living Inc currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.17. Our model-based fair value is $33.51, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Brookdale Senior Living Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($25.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Brookdale Senior Living Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
The market capitalisation of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is 0.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
Earnings per share at Brookdale Senior Living Inc are $−0.8700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
The net margin of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is −8.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is −437% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is −0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
The operating margin of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD)?
Revenue at Brookdale Senior Living Inc is growing −6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) generate?
The free cash flow of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is −$295M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) carry?
The net debt of Brookdale Senior Living Inc is $6.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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