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Black Hills Corporation (BKH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Black Hills Corporation stock $51.34, price $84.87, that is 39.5% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities US

BH Black Hills Corporation logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Black Hills Corporation

BKH · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 40% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin (TTM)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Profit last quarter +32% vs. a year ago.
Moderate debt
3.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 53/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $304,970 (6M)
Fair value $51.34 · Strongly overvalued (−39.5%)
Quality 39/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −3.3 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/14)
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$84.87 $42.08 Fair Value $51.34 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $42.08 – $84.87 · fair‑value band $41.92 – $74.29 · the $84.87 price screens above the $51.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Black Hills Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States. The company operates through the Electric Utilities and Gas Utilities segments.

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The Electric Utilities segment engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity to electric utility customers in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming; ownership and operation of 1,386 megawatts of generation capacity, and 9,478 miles of electric transmission and distribution lines; sale of excess power to other utilities and marketing companies; and ownership and operation of non-regulated power generation and mining assets.

Its Gas Utilities segment is involved in the distribution of natural gas to approximately 1,138,000 natural gas utility customers in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming; ownership and operation of 4,581 miles of intrastate gas transmission pipelines; 44,840 miles of gas distribution mains and service lines; seven natural gas storage sites; and approximately 50,000 horsepower of compression and 494 miles of gathering lines.

The company also provides non-regulated services to its retail customers, including Service Guard Comfort Plan, which provides home appliance repair services through on-going monthly service agreements to residential utility customers; Tech Services, which include construction and maintenance of customer-owned gas infrastructure facilities, as well as electrical system construction services; and HomeServe, which are additional home repair service plans for natural gas residential customers.

In addition, the company produces electric power through wind, natural gas, and coal-fired generating plants, as well as coal at its coal mine located near Gillette, Wyoming. Black Hills Corporation was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in Rapid City, South Dakota.

Stock analysis

Black Hills Corporation (BKH) currently trades at $84.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.34, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $65.03 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the $84.87 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.12, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $41.92 (bear) to $74.29 (bull), the price of $84.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Black Hills Corporation reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $292M in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 2.81 · EPS (TTM) $4.07 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −40%, BKH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $41.92 Fair Value $51.34 Bull $74.29
Price $84.87 · Downside -39.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.12 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $41.92 $44.87 $49.76 76
Growth-Adj P/E $45.52 $65.03 $84.54 67
EPV $2.29 $12.77 $22.00 66
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $26.00 $91.46 $123.03 64
Lynch FV $21.36 $30.52 $39.67 61
PEG = 1.0 $21.36 $30.52 $39.67 57
EPV $2.29 $12.77 $22.00 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $24.25 $51.34 $83.16 66
DDM Multi-Stage $24.25 $42.80 $53.74 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $51.63 $68.83 $86.04 63
P/S Multiple $48.76 $65.01 $81.26 58
P/B Multiple $44.57 $59.43 $74.29 55
EV/EBIT $20.05 $46.48 $72.91 62
EV/EBITDA n/a $16.14 $34.99 62
EV/Revenue n/a $16.48 $39.20 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $16.51 $22.12 $33.02 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $41.92 $44.87 $49.76 76
ROIC Compounder $2.29 $12.77 $22.00 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $45.52 $65.03 $84.54 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 49
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 22
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 46
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 86
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 63
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 87
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $304,970 and none bought.

  • SaleRobert P OttoDirector4,109 shares at $74.22$304,970May 27, 2026
  • SaleKimberly F NooneySVP & CFO14,500 shares at $70.70$1.0MNov 10, 2025

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 39/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.8% vs 6.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

BKH screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Long-term natural gas agreements for a Google data center provide targeted future cash flows shielded from other customers, yet negative free cash flow and thin differentiation limit the regulated utility profile.
Main risk: Negative free cash flow could constrain funding for regulated gas expansions and microgrid projects under ongoing regulatory oversight.
Black Hills recently signed long-term agreements to power a Google data center with new natural gas generation and microgrid management of third-party resources. The setup shields other customers from costs and targets substantial future cash flows. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the data center expansion reinforce the regulated gas operations more than the pending NorthWestern merger complicates them?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −39.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.0% · Below median
Return on assets 2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 13.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 21.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 3.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.23× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 20.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.69× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.81× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 13.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.91× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)16 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)39 · sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)65 · sector 69

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥21.31 ¥24.00 +13% vs BKH
Italgas S.p.A IG €9.12 €10.07 +10% vs BKH
Uniper SE UN0 €44.00 €45.97 +4% vs BKH
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €29.54 €30.62 +4% vs BKH
UGI Corporation UGI $37.04 $29.40 −21% vs BKH
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.40 HK$4.93 −33% vs BKH
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹185.79 ₹116.94 −37% vs BKH
Snam S.p.A SRG €6.20 €3.65 −41% vs BKH
NiSource Inc NI $44.15 $19.87 −55% vs BKH
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $173.22 $77.35 −55% vs BKH

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Black Hills Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Black Hills Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BKH

Frequently asked questions

Is Black Hills Corporation (BKH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $51.34 versus a price of $84.87, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BKH?
Our model-based fair value for Black Hills Corporation is $51.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $84.87.
What is the quality score of BKH?
Black Hills Corporation has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $51.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.92, optimistic scenario $74.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Black Hills Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $51.34, about 40% lower versus a price of $84.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $41.92, optimistic scenario $74.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
Black Hills Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Black Hills Corporation pay a dividend?
Black Hills Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Black Hills Corporation (BKH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Black Hills Corporation pays a dividend of $2.76 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 17, 2026, with payment on Dec 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 67.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Black Hills Corporation it is $51.34 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $84.87. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Black Hills Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, BKH trades above its calculated fair value: price $84.87, fair value $51.34, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BKH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($84.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($51.34). For Black Hills Corporation the two are $33.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Black Hills Corporation worth?
The market values Black Hills Corporation at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $84.87; our models calculate a fair value of $51.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BKH?
Our models span a range for Black Hills Corporation: cautious scenario $41.92, base $51.34, optimistic $74.29 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $84.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BKH?
Black Hills Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $51.34 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 16.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.7, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
What is the PEG ratio of BKH?
The PEG ratio of Black Hills Corporation is 1.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Black Hills Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 1.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BKH from its 52-week high?
Black Hills Corporation trades at $84.87, at its 52-week high of $84.87 and 30% above the low of $65.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $51.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Black Hills Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Black Hills Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $84.87, calculated fair value $51.34 (−40%), Quality Score 39/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BKH calculated?
We run Black Hills Corporation through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $51.34 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Black Hills Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $84.87. Our model-based fair value is $51.34, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Black Hills Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($74.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Black Hills Corporation (BKH) come from?
Earnings per share at Black Hills Corporation grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +4.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Black Hills Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
The market capitalisation of Black Hills Corporation is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Black Hills Corporation is 2.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
Earnings per share at Black Hills Corporation are $4.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
The dividend yield of Black Hills Corporation is 3.2% (payout 67.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
The net margin of Black Hills Corporation is 13.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Black Hills Corporation is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Black Hills Corporation is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
The operating margin of Black Hills Corporation is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
Revenue at Black Hills Corporation is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Black Hills Corporation (BKH)?
Earnings per share at Black Hills Corporation are growing +31.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Black Hills Corporation (BKH) generate?
The free cash flow of Black Hills Corporation is −$146M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Black Hills Corporation (BKH) carry?
The net debt of Black Hills Corporation is $4.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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