Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $5.7B
Black Hills Corporation
BKH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +2.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $45.59 (bear) to $81.40 (bull), base $65.12. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 38/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.48 – $76.10 · fair‑value band $45.59 – $81.40 · the $74.65 price screens above the $65.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Black Hills Corporation (BKH) currently trades at $74.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.12, implying the stock looks roughly 12.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Black Hills Corporation generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 12.6%. Revenue declined 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at $4.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $45.59 (bear case) to $81.40 (bull case); at $74.65, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -13%, BKH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($65.14) versus Economic Profit ($7.54). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Black Hills Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States. The company operates through the Electric Utilities and Gas Utilities segments.
Full company description
Black Hills Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States. The company operates through the Electric Utilities and Gas Utilities segments. The Electric Utilities segment engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity to electric utility customers in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming; ownership and operation of 1,386 megawatts of generation capacity, and 9,478 miles of electric transmission and distribution lines; sale of excess power to other utilities and marketing companies; and ownership and operation of non-regulated power generation and mining assets. Its Gas Utilities segment is involved in the distribution of natural gas to approximately 1,138,000 natural gas utility customers in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming; ownership and operation of 4,581 miles of intrastate gas transmission pipelines; 44,840 miles of gas distribution mains and service lines; seven natural gas storage sites; and approximately 50,000 horsepower of compression and 494 miles of gathering lines. The company also provides non-regulated services to its retail customers, including Service Guard Comfort Plan, which provides home appliance repair services through on-going monthly service agreements to residential utility customers; Tech Services, which include construction and maintenance of customer-owned gas infrastructure facilities, as well as electrical system construction services; and HomeServe, which are additional home repair service plans for natural gas residential customers. In addition, the company produces electric power through wind, natural gas, and coal-fired generating plants, as well as coal at its coal mine located near Gillette, Wyoming. Black Hills Corporation was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in Rapid City, South Dakota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Black Hills Corporation reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $292M in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
BKH screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Black Hills (BKH) Posted Stronger Q2 Earnings, Is The Upside Already Priced In?
- Do Higher Earnings And A Steady Dividend Recast Black Hills' Capital Allocation Story (BKH)?
- Black Hills Corp (BKH) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Reaffirms Guidance and Advances 3 GW ...
- Black Hills Corp. Reports 2026 Second-Quarter Results and Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Guidance
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.84 | €35.80 | +24% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $177.68 | $85.67 | -52% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $47.07 | $28.59 | -39% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €42.80 | €49.13 | +15% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.03 | HK$5.08 | -28% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €9.98 | €8.11 | -19% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.71 | ₹147.74 | -14% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹723.90 | ₹101.36 | -86% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.30 | ¥25.71 | +49% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $35.84 | $27.13 | -24% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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