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BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BlueScope Steel Limited $4.35, price $22.65, upside -80.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
BlueScope Steel Limited
BLSFF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $4.35 · Strongly overvalued (−80.8%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +7.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!4.2% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.95 – $24.50 · fair‑value band $3.50 – $5.45 · the $22.65 price screens above the $4.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and North America.
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BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and North America. The company operates through five segments: Australian Steel Products, North Star BlueScope Steel, Buildings and Coated Products North America, Coated Products Asia, and New Zealand & Pacific Islands. It offers coated and painted flat steel products, including zinc/aluminium alloy coated steel; and galvanized and zinc/aluminium alloy coated pre-painted steel, as well as manufactures pipes and tubes. The company is also involved in the supply of hot rolled coils; the provision of engineered building solutions, such as coil paintings; and the development of industrial properties, primarily warehouses and distribution centres. In addition, it provides metal coating, painting, and steel building solutions; and steel slabs, billets, plates, cold-rolled coils, reinforcing coils, rods, wires, and bars, as well as value-added coated and painted steel solutions, as well as operates ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal recyclers. Further, the company offers its products under the COLORBOND, COLORSTEEL, TRUECORE, ZINCALUME, TRU-SPEC, LYSAGHT, FIELDERS, Orrcon Steel, BUTLER, and VARCO PRUDEN brand names for residential and non-residential building, construction, automotive, manufacturing, infrastructure, packaging, transport, agriculture, and mining industries. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as BHP Steel Limited and changed its name to BlueScope Steel Limited in November 2003. BlueScope Steel Limited was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF) currently trades at $22.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.35, 80.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $11.32 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $22.65 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.7500, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.50 (bear) to $5.45 (bull), the price of $22.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BlueScope Steel Limited reported revenue of A$16.3B in FY2025 versus A$12.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$83.8M in FY2025, compounding −48.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.0B · P/E ratio 56.6 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.4000 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −81%, BLSFF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.7500 to $11.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $3.50
Fair Value $4.35
Bull $5.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.25
$5.83
$8.11
78
Growth DCF
$4.30
$5.72
$7.64
77
EPV
$1.77
$1.90
$2.01
74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.25
$5.83
$8.11
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.13
$4.06
$5.20
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$6.03
$9.39
$13.27
73
5Y P/E Exit
$3.12
$4.05
$4.98
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.48
$4.40
$5.55
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.32
$7.98
$11.48
66
10Y P/E Exit
$3.52
$4.39
$5.39
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.9000
$2.57
$3.39
63
Lynch FV
$0.5300
$0.7500
$0.9800
59
PEG = 1.0
$0.5300
$0.7500
$0.9800
55
EPV
$1.77
$1.90
$2.01
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$5.00
$9.97
$15.09
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.00
$7.83
$10.52
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.69
$2.26
$2.82
63
P/S Multiple
$1.69
$2.26
$2.82
58
P/B Multiple
$1.69
$2.26
$2.82
55
EV/EBIT
$2.81
$3.43
$4.04
66
EV/EBITDA
$7.86
$10.16
$12.46
67
EV/Revenue
$2.57
$3.25
$3.93
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$8.44
$11.32
$16.89
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.30
$5.72
$7.64
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.13
$4.10
$5.21
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$11.36
$10.61
$10.17
74
ROIC Compounder
$1.77
$1.90
$2.01
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.39
$1.98
$2.58
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
79
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−36.8% vs −7.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.4% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.4%
BLSFF screens overvalued: fair value 81% below the price. Compare with Nucor Corporation →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $236.24 | $116.49 | −51% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €59.82 | €35.15 | −41% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $230.39 | $127.93 | −44% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,233 | ₹1,095 | −11% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹178.00 | ₹147.10 | −17% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $393.04 | $211.55 | −46% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.84 | ¥8.07 | +38% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 311,000 KRW | 155,270 KRW | −50% |
| Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 | ¥2.09 | ¥0.5300 | −75% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,165 | ₹516.27 | −56% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.35 versus a price of $22.65, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BLSFF?
Our model-based fair value for BlueScope Steel Limited is $4.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.65.
What is the quality score of BLSFF?
BlueScope Steel Limited has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.50, optimistic scenario $5.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BlueScope Steel Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.35, about −81% upside versus a price of $22.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.50, optimistic scenario $5.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
BlueScope Steel Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$16.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does BlueScope Steel Limited pay a dividend?
BlueScope Steel Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BlueScope Steel Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +37.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BLSFF use?
Our models discount BlueScope Steel Limited at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BlueScope Steel Limited that is +37.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BlueScope Steel Limited grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +37.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BlueScope Steel Limited (+37.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.25 %: that much free cash flow BlueScope Steel Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BlueScope Steel Limited it is $4.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $22.65. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BlueScope Steel Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BLSFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.65, fair value $4.35, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BLSFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.35). For BlueScope Steel Limited the two are $18.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BlueScope Steel Limited worth?
The market values BlueScope Steel Limited at about $10.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.65; our models calculate a fair value of $4.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BLSFF?
Our models span a range for BlueScope Steel Limited: cautious scenario $3.50, base $4.35, optimistic $5.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $22.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is BLSFF from its 52-week high?
BlueScope Steel Limited trades at $22.65, about 8% below its 52-week high of $24.50 and 65% above the low of $13.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BlueScope Steel Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BlueScope Steel Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $22.65, calculated fair value $4.35 (−81%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BLSFF calculated?
We run BlueScope Steel Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BlueScope Steel Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $22.65. Our model-based fair value is $4.35, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BlueScope Steel Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF) come from?
Earnings per share at BlueScope Steel Limited grew +15.2 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.3 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +10.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BlueScope Steel Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The market capitalisation of BlueScope Steel Limited is $10.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of BlueScope Steel Limited is 56.6. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BlueScope Steel Limited is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
Earnings per share at BlueScope Steel Limited are $0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The dividend yield of BlueScope Steel Limited is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The net margin of BlueScope Steel Limited is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BlueScope Steel Limited is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BlueScope Steel Limited is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
The operating margin of BlueScope Steel Limited is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
Revenue at BlueScope Steel Limited is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF)?
Earnings per share at BlueScope Steel Limited are growing +119% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BlueScope Steel Limited (BLSFF) carry?
The net debt of BlueScope Steel Limited is A$28.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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