Banca Mediolanum S.p.A (BMED) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IT · Market cap €15.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +7.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
- Our model range runs from €16.33 (bear) to €27.21 (bull), base €21.77. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 67/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.48 – €24.19 · fair‑value band €16.33 – €27.21 · the €24.19 price screens above the €21.77 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A (BMED) currently trades at €24.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €21.77, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Banca Mediolanum S.p.A generated revenue of €2.4B at a net margin of 52.1%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.8%. Net debt stands at €1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €16.33 (bear case) to €27.21 (bull case); at €24.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -10%, BMED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€75.52) versus Asset-Based (€4.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 88
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. engages in the provision of various banking products and services in Italy. It offers current accounts; deposits products; and mortgage and personal loans.
Full company description
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. engages in the provision of various banking products and services in Italy. It offers current accounts; deposits products; and mortgage and personal loans. The company also provides credit cards, debit cards, and prepaid cards; investment products, such as mutual funds, unit linked policies, investment strategies, trading services, asset management services, social security, and bond issues and certificates; and insurance policies, including health and personal, life, serious illness, and autonomy protection, as well as protection assistance, and home and family protection. In addition, it offers SelfyCare Pet for reimbursement of veterinary expenses; SelfyCare Travel for assistance and coverage for risks arising during trips; and SelfyCare LifeProject for a specific life project. Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Basiglio, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Banca Mediolanum S.p.A reported revenue of €2.4B in FY2025 versus €5.7B in FY2021, a compound −19.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.
BMED screens 10% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income Surges 16% on ...
- Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and Strategic ...
- Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in Net Income and ...
- Is Now the Right Moment for Banca Mediolanum Shares After a 72% Rally?
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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