Barnes & Noble Education, Inc (BNED) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $363M

Below-average quality, and screening another 58% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.12 – $1,185 · fair‑value band $5.32 – $7.94 · the $12.80 price screens above the $5.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc (BNED) currently trades at $12.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.32, implying the stock looks roughly 58.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Barnes & Noble Education, Inc generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.4%. Net debt stands at $274M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $5.32 (bear case) to $7.94 (bull case); at $12.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -58%, BNED screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($5.62) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0600). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. operates bookstores for college and university campuses, and K-12 institutions primarily in the United States. The company sells and rents new and used print textbooks, digital textbooks, and publisher hosted digital courseware through physical and virtual bookstores, as well as directly to students through Textbooks.com.

Full company description

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. operates bookstores for college and university campuses, and K-12 institutions primarily in the United States. The company sells and rents new and used print textbooks, digital textbooks, and publisher hosted digital courseware through physical and virtual bookstores, as well as directly to students through Textbooks.com. In addition, it offers First Day and First Day Complete access programs; and general merchandise, including collegiate and athletic apparel, school spirit products, lifestyle and wellness products, technology products, supplies, graduation products, and convenience items. Further, the company sources, sells, and distributes new and used textbooks; and sells hardware and a software suite of applications that provides inventory management and point-of-sale solutions to college bookstores. Additionally, it offers direct-to-student services. It operates physical college and university bookstores; virtual bookstores; True Spirit e apparel and spirit shop e-commerce websites; pop-up retail locations; customized cafés and stand-alone convenience stores; and a media channel for brands targeting the college demographic. Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Florham Park, New Jersey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2026 versus $1.5B in FY2022, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$65.8M in FY2026.

BNED screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.