Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bonava AB (publ) SEK 16.95, price SEK 8.65, upside +96.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 6.76 – kr 90.85 · fair‑value band kr 10.62 – kr 21.54 · the kr 8.65 price screens below the kr 16.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Bonava AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, operates as a residential developer in Germany, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The company constructs, develops, and sells multi-family and single-family homes, as well as semi-detached houses. It serves consumers and institutional investors.
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Bonava AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, operates as a residential developer in Germany, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The company constructs, develops, and sells multi-family and single-family homes, as well as semi-detached houses. It serves consumers and institutional investors. The company was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A) currently trades at kr 8.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 16.95, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 17.45 per share, and 10 of the 11 models we run sit above the kr 8.65 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at kr 12.75, and 1 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 10.62 (bear) to kr 21.54 (bull), the price of kr 8.65 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Bonava AB (publ) reported revenue of 7.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 14.7B SEK in FY2021, a compound −14.9%/yr. Reported net income was −89.0M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B SEK (≈ $303M) · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.1200 · Net margin −1.2% · Return on equity −1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 6.3% · Revenue (TTM) 6.9B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 96%, BONAV-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 10.62Fair Value kr 16.95Bull kr 21.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.6% (2020) → 4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price and +11.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+96.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−17.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bonava AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BONAV-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 16.95 versus a price of kr 8.65, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BONAV-A?
Our model-based fair value for Bonava AB (publ) is kr 16.95 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 8.65.
What is the quality score of BONAV-A?
Bonava AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 16.95 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 10.62, optimistic scenario kr 21.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bonava AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 16.95, about +96% upside versus a price of kr 8.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 10.62, optimistic scenario kr 21.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
Bonava AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.9B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bonava AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -14.6 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BONAV-A use?
Our models discount Bonava AB (publ) at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bonava AB (publ) that is +9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bonava AB (publ) grew -14.6 % a year. The price currently implies +9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bonava AB (publ) (+9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.02 %: that much free cash flow Bonava AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bonava AB (publ) it is kr 16.95 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of kr 8.65. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bonava AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, BONAV-A trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 8.65, fair value kr 16.95, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BONAV-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 8.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 16.95). For Bonava AB (publ) the two are kr 8.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bonava AB (publ) worth?
The market values Bonava AB (publ) at about 3.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is kr 8.65; our models calculate a fair value of kr 16.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BONAV-A?
Our models span a range for Bonava AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 10.62, base kr 16.95, optimistic kr 21.54 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price kr 8.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bonava AB (publ) (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity −1.3%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BONAV-A from its 52-week high?
Bonava AB (publ) trades at kr 8.65, about 35% below its 52-week high of kr 13.35 and 8% above the low of kr 8.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 16.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bonava AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bonava AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price kr 8.65, calculated fair value kr 16.95 (+96%), Quality Score 42/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BONAV-A calculated?
We run Bonava AB (publ) through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 16.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bonava AB (publ) currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 8.65. Our model-based fair value is kr 16.95, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bonava AB (publ) right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 10.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 10.62 to kr 21.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Bonava AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
The market capitalisation of Bonava AB (publ) is 3.0B SEK (≈ $303M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bonava AB (publ) is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
Earnings per share at Bonava AB (publ) are kr −0.1200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
The net margin of Bonava AB (publ) is −1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bonava AB (publ) is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bonava AB (publ) is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
The operating margin of Bonava AB (publ) is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
Revenue at Bonava AB (publ) is growing −17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A)?
Earnings per share at Bonava AB (publ) are growing +44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bonava AB (publ) (BONAV-A) carry?
The net debt of Bonava AB (publ) is 3.4B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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