Toll Brothers, Inc (TOL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $14.1B
Toll Brothers, Inc
TOL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from $223.66 to $225.76 (+0.9%) since Jul 19, 2026.
A solid business, screening 49% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($124.27 to $331.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.91 – $165.52 · fair‑value band $124.27 – $331.62 · the $151.33 price screens below the $225.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Toll Brothers, Inc (TOL) currently trades at $151.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $225.76, implying the stock looks roughly 49.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toll Brothers, Inc generated revenue of $11.0B at a net margin of 11.7%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.7%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $124.27 (bear case) to $331.62 (bull case); at $151.33, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 49%, TOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($266.09) versus Dividend Discount ($16.72). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living.
Full company description
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities. In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Toll Brothers, Inc reported revenue of $11.0B in FY2025 versus $8.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) Could Be 10% Below Fair Value As Luxury Communities Open
- Toll Brothers (TOL) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider
- Toll Brothers Announces Haven at Sea Bright is Now Open on the New Jersey Coast
- Toll Brothers Announces Model Home Grand Opening at Vintage Grove in Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 66 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $149.53 | $179.57 | +20% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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