Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Toll Brothers Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $13.5B · ISIN US8894781033
At a glance
TBToll Brothers IncTOL · US
Price$135.05
Fair Value$221.32
Upside+63.9%
Quality64/100
A solid business, trading 39% below our fair value of $221.32.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Toll Brothers Inc is $221.32 per share against a price of $135.05, so the fair value sits 64% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.7% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.75% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange $122.00 to $313.88
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −10.0% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range ($122.00 to $313.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.91 – $165.52 · fair‑value band $122.00 – $313.88 · the $135.05 price screens below the $221.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) currently trades at $135.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $221.32, implying the stock looks roughly 39.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $275.07 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $135.05 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $59.28, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toll Brothers Inc generated revenue of $11.0B at a net margin of 11.7%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.7%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: $122.00 (bear) to $313.88 (bull), the price of $135.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 64%, TOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.45 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio10.3
P/S ratio1.26P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$13.16price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3
Dividend yield0.7%payout 7.7%
Net margin12.3%FY2025
Return on equity15.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)12.4%avg 5y
Operating margin15.1%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$11.0BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−7.6%3y avg +2.2%
EPS growth (YoY)−22.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$1.0BFY2025
Net debt$1.7BFY2025 · ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality64/100
Of which business quality 63
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Profitability53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance100
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living.
Full company description
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities. In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Toll Brothers Inc reported revenue of $11.0B in FY2025 versus $8.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$11.0B
Latest YoY
+1.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+30.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+30.2%
Dividend yield0.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 27.4% vs 10Y 21.2%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7.8% (2020) → 15.7% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop2,254% (2009) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue+5.7%/yr
FY21$8.8B
FY22$10.3B
FY23$10.0B
FY24$10.8B
FY25$11.0B
Net income+12.7%/yr
FY21$834M
FY22$1.3B
FY23$1.4B
FY24$1.6B
FY25$1.3B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+23.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share+17.2 %
of which total revenue +10.2 % · buybacks/dilution +6.3 %
EBIT margin+6.2 %
Tax rate+1.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+56% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.28× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF13.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.01× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Toll Brothers Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+4.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+9.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price7.62 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.0 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 63
FUTURE0· sector 0
PAST63· sector 33
HEALTH83· sector 88
DIVIDEND15· sector 66
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $221.32 versus a price of $135.05, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOL?
Our model-based fair value for Toll Brothers Inc is $221.32 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $135.05.
What is the quality score of TOL?
Toll Brothers Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $221.32 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $122.00, optimistic scenario $313.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toll Brothers Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $221.32, about +64% upside versus a price of $135.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $122.00, optimistic scenario $313.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Toll Brothers Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TOL?
The net profit margin of Toll Brothers Inc is about 11.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Toll Brothers Inc pay a dividend?
Toll Brothers Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toll Brothers Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.0 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOL use?
Our models discount Toll Brothers Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toll Brothers Inc it is $221.32 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $135.05. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toll Brothers Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, TOL trades below its calculated fair value: price $135.05, fair value $221.32, a gap of about +64% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($135.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($221.32). For Toll Brothers Inc the two are $86.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toll Brothers Inc worth?
The market values Toll Brothers Inc at about $13.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $135.05; our models calculate a fair value of $221.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOL?
Our models span a range for Toll Brothers Inc: cautious scenario $122.00, base $221.32, optimistic $313.88 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $135.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOL?
Toll Brothers Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $221.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of TOL?
The PEG ratio of Toll Brothers Inc is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toll Brothers Inc (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOL from its 52-week high?
Toll Brothers Inc trades at $135.05, about 20% below its 52-week high of $168.05 and 31% above the low of $103.30 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $221.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toll Brothers Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toll Brothers Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $135.05, calculated fair value $221.32 (+64%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOL calculated?
We run Toll Brothers Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $221.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Toll Brothers Inc
TOL · US