PulteGroup, Inc (PHM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $23.8B
PulteGroup, Inc
PHM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $192.60 to $193.56 (+0.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −0.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 49% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($118.01 to $256.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.99 – $146.95 · fair‑value band $118.01 – $256.30 · the $129.55 price screens below the $193.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
PulteGroup, Inc (PHM) currently trades at $129.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $193.56, implying the stock looks roughly 49.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PulteGroup, Inc generated revenue of $16.8B at a net margin of 12.1%. Revenue declined 12.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.2%. Net debt stands at $394M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $118.01 (bear case) to $256.30 (bull case); at $129.55, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 49%, PHM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($222.91) versus Asset-Based ($45.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes, as well as construction of housing; and sale of single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the …
Full company description
PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes, as well as construction of housing; and sale of single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brands. It also engages in the mortgage banking, title, and insurance agency operations. PulteGroup, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PulteGroup, Inc reported revenue of $17.3B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PulteGroup Expands Operations into Northwest Florida
- PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Still Looks Cheap On Mixed Housing Demand News
- PHM or NVR: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 66 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $149.53 | $179.57 | +20% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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