PulteGroup Inc (PHM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PulteGroup Inc stock $191, price $136, upside +40.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.91 – $146.63 · fair‑value band $116.59 – $256.30 · the $135.97 price screens below the $190.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States.
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The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes, as well as construction of housing; and sale of single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brands.
It also engages in the mortgage banking, title, and insurance agency operations. PulteGroup, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
PulteGroup Inc (PHM) currently trades at $135.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $190.90, implying the stock looks roughly 29% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $197.16 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $135.97 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $53.22, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $116.59 (bear) to $256.30 (bull), the price of $135.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PulteGroup Inc reported revenue of $17.3B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $26.4B Large · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 1.65 · EPS (TTM) $9.36 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 40%, PHM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$116.59Fair Value $190.90Bull$256.30
Price $135.97 · Upside +40.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.04 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.3% vs 23.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price and −3.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: PulteGroup benefits from resilient move-up and active-adult segments that now exceed 60 percent of closings and support margins with backlog growth, yet its main weakness remains limited differentiation and sharp cyclical exposure in residential construction.
Main risk: Higher tariffs on materials or stricter zoning and environmental regulations might elevate building costs and cause project delays for PulteGroup, eroding margins.
Bull case: PulteGroup could strengthen its position in higher-margin lifestyle segments like Del Webb and accelerate its build-to-order model to differentiate from scale-focused rivals and offset regulatory cost pressures.
Bear case: If larger rivals intensify competition and regulatory hurdles mount, PulteGroup might face persistent margin compression and slower community development across its markets.
PulteGroup saw demand weaken sharply among first-time buyers in the third quarter as mortgage rates stayed high, yet its move-up and active-adult segments proved more resilient and now account for over 60 percent of closings while supporting margins. Backlog grew year over year even as orders and deliveries fell. Our models see the stock as undervalued, but will the shift toward these steadier buyer groups protect results or will affordability pressures keep eroding traffic across the board?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+40.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Return on assets12.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PulteGroup Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PHM
Frequently asked questions
Is PulteGroup Inc (PHM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $190.90 versus a price of $135.97, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PHM?
Our model-based fair value for PulteGroup Inc is $190.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $135.97.
What is the quality score of PHM?
PulteGroup Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $190.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $116.59, optimistic scenario $256.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PulteGroup Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $190.90, about +40% upside versus a price of $135.97 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $116.59, optimistic scenario $256.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
PulteGroup Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does PulteGroup Inc pay a dividend?
PulteGroup Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.76% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PulteGroup Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PHM use?
Our models discount PulteGroup Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PulteGroup Inc that is +3.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PulteGroup Inc (PHM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PulteGroup Inc grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PulteGroup Inc (PHM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PulteGroup Inc (+3.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.63 %: that much free cash flow PulteGroup Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PulteGroup Inc it is $190.90 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $135.97. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PulteGroup Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PHM trades below its calculated fair value: price $135.97, fair value $190.90, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PHM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($135.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($190.90). For PulteGroup Inc the two are $54.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PulteGroup Inc worth?
The market values PulteGroup Inc at about $26.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $135.97; our models calculate a fair value of $190.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PHM?
Our models span a range for PulteGroup Inc: cautious scenario $116.59, base $190.90, optimistic $256.30 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $135.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PHM?
PulteGroup Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $190.90 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 8.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PHM?
The PEG ratio of PulteGroup Inc is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
Balance-sheet figures for PulteGroup Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PHM from its 52-week high?
PulteGroup Inc trades at $135.97, about 4% below its 52-week high of $141.65 and 24% above the low of $109.35 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $190.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PulteGroup Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, Toll Brothers, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PulteGroup Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $135.97, calculated fair value $190.90 (+40%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PHM calculated?
We run PulteGroup Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $190.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. PulteGroup Inc currently trades 29% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $135.97. Our model-based fair value is $190.90, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PulteGroup Inc right now?
Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($116.59 to $256.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of PulteGroup Inc (PHM) come from?
Earnings per share at PulteGroup Inc grew +25.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.8 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PulteGroup Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The market capitalisation of PulteGroup Inc is $26.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PulteGroup Inc is 1.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
Earnings per share at PulteGroup Inc are $9.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The dividend yield of PulteGroup Inc is 0.8% (payout 11.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The net margin of PulteGroup Inc is 11.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PulteGroup Inc is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PulteGroup Inc is 14.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
The operating margin of PulteGroup Inc is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
Revenue at PulteGroup Inc is growing −9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PulteGroup Inc (PHM)?
Earnings per share at PulteGroup Inc are growing −14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PulteGroup Inc (PHM) carry?
The net debt of PulteGroup Inc is $394M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026