Cavco Industries, Inc (CVCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.3B
Cavco Industries, Inc
CVCO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $422.39 to $421.10 (−0.3%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +6.4% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($323.16 to $688.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $184.55 – $697.76 · fair‑value band $323.16 – $688.58 · the $592.23 price screens above the $421.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Cavco Industries, Inc (CVCO) currently trades at $592.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $421.10, implying the stock looks roughly 28.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cavco Industries, Inc generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 8.5%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $226M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $323.16 (bear case) to $688.58 (bull case); at $592.23, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -29%, CVCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($592.38) versus Dividend Discount ($7.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments: Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services.
Full company description
Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments: Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services. The company produces park model RVs; vacation cabins; and factory-built commercial structures, including apartment buildings, condominiums, hotels, workforce housing, schools, and housing for the United States military troops. It also produces various modular homes, which include single and multi-section ranch, split-level, and Cape Cod style homes, as well as two- and three-story homes, and multi-family units. In addition, the company provides conforming and non-conforming mortgages and home-only loans to purchasers of various brands of factory-built homes sold by company-owned retail stores, as well as various independent distributors, builders, communities, and developers. Further, it offers property and casualty insurance to owners of manufactured housing industry. The company distributes its products through a network of independent and company-owned retailers, planned community operators, and residential developers. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Cavco Industries, Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2026 versus $1.6B in FY2022, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $191M in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
CVCO screens 29% overvalued. Compare with D.R. Horton, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Backlog ...
- Cavco signals 7- to 9-week backlog range as Q1 revenue tops $600M
- Cavco Industries Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Cavco Industries Reports Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Results
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 86/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $149.53 | $179.57 | +20% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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