Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $5.0B
Meritage Homes Corporation
MTH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $103.38 to $119.34 (+15.4%) since Jun 24, 2026.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($72.55 to $165.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.46 – $102.33 · fair‑value band $72.55 – $165.20 · the $74.59 price screens below the $119.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) currently trades at $74.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $119.34, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Meritage Homes Corporation generated revenue of $5.6B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue declined 17.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $72.55 (bear case) to $165.20 (bull case); at $74.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 60%, MTH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($315.54) versus Growth DCF ($23.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services.
Full company description
Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. It acquires and develops land; and constructs, markets, and sells homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers in Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The company also provides title and escrow, mortgage, insurance, title insurance, and closing/settlement services to its homebuyers. Meritage Homes Corporation was founded in 1985 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Meritage Homes Corporation reported revenue of $5.9B in FY2025 versus $5.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $453M in FY2025, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Meritage Homes Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- MTH Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Discipline and Strategic Product Shift Amid Soft Demand
- Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Operational Execution Amid ...
- Meritage outlines Q3 2026 EPS of $1.10-$1.30 while upping full-year closings and revenue outlook to ~5% below 2025
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $149.53 | $179.57 | +20% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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