DR Horton Inc (DHI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of DR Horton Inc stock $232, price $157, upside +48.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.95 – $192.57 · fair‑value band $137.64 – $322.71 · the $156.99 price screens below the $232.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States.
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It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 126 markets across 36 states under the names of D.R. Horton. The company also constructs and sells single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes and duplexes.
In addition, it provides mortgage financing and title agency services; and engages in the residential lot development business.
Further, the company develops, constructs, owns, leases, and sells multi-family and single-family rental properties; conducts insurance-related operations; and owns water rights and other water-related assets, as well as non-residential real estate, including ranch land and improvements.
It primarily serves homebuyers. D.R. Horton, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas.
Stock analysis
DR Horton Inc (DHI) currently trades at $156.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $232.37, implying the stock looks roughly 32% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $223.77 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $156.99 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $26.71, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $137.64 (bear) to $322.71 (bull), the price of $156.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2001: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2001.
DR Horton Inc reported revenue of $33.0B in FY2026 versus $33.5B in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9B in FY2026, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $45.3B Large · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 1.37 · EPS (TTM) $10.11 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 48%, DHI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$137.64Fair Value $232.37Bull$322.71
Price $156.99 · Upside +48.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8196 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleAron M. OdomSVP, Controller and PAO260 shares at $167.55$43,563Feb 13, 2026
Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2001: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2001.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Per share before 2001divided by the spin-off factor 1.11
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.6% vs 15.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.7% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Scale gives D.R. Horton moderate organizational and pricing edges in the cyclical residential construction sector, yet limited signals on human capital innovation and insider activity leave the overall moat average.
Main risk: Housing market cyclicality combined with higher cancellations and mortgage costs could weaken demand and force further cuts to closing guidance, hitting delivery volumes.
D.R. Horton lowered its 2026 closing guidance after missing internal sales targets amid higher cancellations and mortgage costs, yet still posted a 20.7 percent home sales gross margin by tightening costs and shortening cycle times. Management chose to protect those margins rather than push volume harder. Does this operating discipline strengthen long-term returns in a tough affordability environment or leave the company exposed if demand stays weak?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+48.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.1% · Above median
Return on assets8.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
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As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $232.37 versus a price of $156.99, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DHI?
Our model-based fair value for DR Horton Inc is $232.37 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $156.99.
What is the quality score of DHI?
DR Horton Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $232.37 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $137.64, optimistic scenario $322.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DR Horton Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $232.37, about +48% upside versus a price of $156.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $137.64, optimistic scenario $322.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
DR Horton Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does DR Horton Inc pay a dividend?
DR Horton Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DR Horton Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DHI use?
Our models discount DR Horton Inc at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DR Horton Inc that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DR Horton Inc (DHI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DR Horton Inc grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DR Horton Inc (DHI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DR Horton Inc (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.39 %: that much free cash flow DR Horton Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DR Horton Inc it is $232.37 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $156.99. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DR Horton Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, DHI trades below its calculated fair value: price $156.99, fair value $232.37, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DHI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($156.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($232.37). For DR Horton Inc the two are $75.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DR Horton Inc worth?
The market values DR Horton Inc at about $45.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $156.99; our models calculate a fair value of $232.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DHI?
Our models span a range for DR Horton Inc: cautious scenario $137.64, base $232.37, optimistic $322.71 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $156.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DHI?
DR Horton Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $232.37 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 12.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of DHI?
The PEG ratio of DR Horton Inc is 1.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
Balance-sheet figures for DR Horton Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DHI from its 52-week high?
DR Horton Inc trades at $156.99, about 6% below its 52-week high of $166.78 and 19% above the low of $131.74 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $232.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DR Horton Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, Toll Brothers, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DR Horton Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $156.99, calculated fair value $232.37 (+48%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DHI calculated?
We run DR Horton Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $232.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. DR Horton Inc currently trades 32% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $156.99. Our model-based fair value is $232.37, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DR Horton Inc right now?
Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($137.64 to $322.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of DR Horton Inc (DHI) come from?
Earnings per share at DR Horton Inc grew +19.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of DR Horton Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The market capitalisation of DR Horton Inc is $45.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DR Horton Inc is 1.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
Earnings per share at DR Horton Inc are $10.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The dividend yield of DR Horton Inc is 1.1% (payout 17.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The net margin of DR Horton Inc is 8.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DR Horton Inc is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DR Horton Inc is 16.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
The operating margin of DR Horton Inc is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
Revenue at DR Horton Inc is growing −3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DR Horton Inc (DHI)?
Earnings per share at DR Horton Inc are growing −12.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does DR Horton Inc (DHI) carry?
The net debt of DR Horton Inc is $4.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026