NVR Inc (NVR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NVR Inc stock $8,123, price $6,377, upside +27.4%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3,670 – $9,924 · fair‑value band $5,376 – $10,560 · the $6,377 price screens below the $8,123 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates through Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking segments. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names.
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The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers.
It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis.
The company primarily serves Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, Washington, D.C., New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky.
NVR, Inc. was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Stock analysis
NVR Inc (NVR) currently trades at $6,377, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8,123, implying the stock looks roughly 21% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8,467 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $6,377 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $3,777, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5,376 (bear) to $10,560 (bull), the price of $6,377 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NVR Inc reported revenue of $10.3B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.3B Large · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 1.95 · EPS (TTM) $361.76 · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 28.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 30.2% · Operating margin 14.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 27%, NVR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5,376Fair Value $8,123Bull$10,560
Price $6,377 · Upside +27.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($307.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $405,185, on Aug 7, 2026.
BuyGeorge OliverDirector63 shares at $6,432$405,185Aug 7, 2026
BuyMichael J DeVitoDirector11 shares at $6,700$73,695Apr 24, 2026
SaleSusan Williamson RossDirector3× since Feb 4, 2026: 620 shares, avg. $8,004$5.0MFeb 13, 2026
SaleMatthew B. KelpyVP, Chief Accounting Officer500 shares at $8,100$4.1MFeb 10, 2026
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.7% vs 17.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.6% a year for the price and −5.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: NVR's capital-light model underpins moderate moat strength via profitability metrics and cash conversion, yet thin evidence overall and sector cyclicality mark the main weakness.
Main risk: NVR depends on third-party developers to prepare and supply finished lots under option agreements, which could restrict access to lots or raise costs if developers become scarce or demand higher prices in key markets.
Bull case: NVR could strengthen relationships with developers and refine its standardized processes to secure reliable lot supply while adapting its sales approach to compete more effectively on delivery timelines.
Bear case: If developers limit options or spec competitors capture more buyers with immediate discounted homes, NVR could face sustained constraints on community growth, higher lot costs and reduced ability to convert demand into settlements.
NVR reported margin compression in the third quarter from higher lot costs and pricing pressure tied to affordability challenges and weak sentiment, even as it impaired land deposits rather than carrying heavy inventory. Our models currently see the company as undervalued. This capital-light approach has long differentiated it from peers, but will it limit damage from rising construction costs and softer demand or will the pressures compound through next year?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+27.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets22.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NVR Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVR
Frequently asked questions
Is NVR Inc (NVR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8,123 versus a price of $6,377, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVR?
Our model-based fair value for NVR Inc is $8,123 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6,377.
What is the quality score of NVR?
NVR Inc has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NVR Inc (NVR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8,123 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5,376, optimistic scenario $10,560. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NVR Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8,123, about +27% upside versus a price of $6,377 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5,376, optimistic scenario $10,560. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NVR Inc (NVR)?
NVR Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into NVR Inc (NVR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NVR Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVR use?
Our models discount NVR Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NVR Inc that is +4.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NVR Inc (NVR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NVR Inc grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +4.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NVR Inc (NVR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NVR Inc (+4.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.99 %: that much free cash flow NVR Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NVR Inc (NVR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NVR Inc it is $8,123 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $6,377. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NVR Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NVR trades below its calculated fair value: price $6,377, fair value $8,123, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6,377); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8,123). For NVR Inc the two are $1,746 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NVR Inc worth?
The market values NVR Inc at about $18.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $6,377; our models calculate a fair value of $8,123 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVR?
Our models span a range for NVR Inc: cautious scenario $5,376, base $8,123, optimistic $10,560 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $6,377). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVR?
NVR Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8,123 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 17.6. Other multiples: PEG 5.0, P/B 4.7, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of NVR?
The PEG ratio of NVR Inc is 4.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NVR Inc (NVR)?
Balance-sheet figures for NVR Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 28.3%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVR from its 52-week high?
NVR Inc trades at $6,377, about 21% below its 52-week high of $8,097 and 15% above the low of $5,564 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8,123 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NVR Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, Toll Brothers, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NVR Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $6,377, calculated fair value $8,123 (+27%), Quality Score 80/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVR calculated?
We run NVR Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8,123, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. NVR Inc currently trades 21% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $6,377. Our model-based fair value is $8,123, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NVR Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($5,376 to $10,560) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NVR Inc (NVR) come from?
Earnings per share at NVR Inc grew +20.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.0 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NVR Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The market capitalisation of NVR Inc is $18.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NVR Inc is 1.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NVR Inc (NVR)?
Earnings per share at NVR Inc are $361.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The net margin of NVR Inc is 11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NVR Inc is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NVR Inc (NVR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NVR Inc is 30.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The operating margin of NVR Inc is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NVR Inc (NVR)?
Revenue at NVR Inc is growing −8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NVR Inc (NVR)?
Earnings per share at NVR Inc are growing −20.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NVR Inc (NVR) hold?
NVR Inc holds more cash than debt, $760M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 6, 2026