NVR Inc (NVR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what NVR Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3,670 – $9,924 · fair‑value band $5,270 – $12,755 · the $6,150 price screens below the $8,059 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates through Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking segments. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names.
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NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates through Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking segments. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, Washington, D.C., New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Stock analysis
NVR Inc (NVR) currently trades at $6,150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8,059, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8,251 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $6,150 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $959.31, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5,270 (bear) to $12,755 (bull), the price of $6,150 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NVR Inc reported revenue of $10.3B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.9B · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 1.95 · EPS (TTM) $409.55 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 33.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 30.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 59% fair-value upside, at 31%, NVR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5,270Fair Value $8,059Bull $12,755
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($297.31 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 65 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Return on assets17% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NVR Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVR
Frequently asked questions
Is NVR Inc (NVR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8,059 versus a price of $6,150, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVR?
Our model-based fair value for NVR Inc is $8,059 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6,150.
What is the quality score of NVR?
NVR Inc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NVR Inc (NVR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8,059 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5,270, optimistic scenario $12,755. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NVR Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8,059, about +31% upside versus a price of $6,150 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5,270, optimistic scenario $12,755. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NVR Inc (NVR)?
NVR Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does NVR Inc pay a dividend?
NVR Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into NVR Inc (NVR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NVR Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVR use?
Our models discount NVR Inc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NVR Inc that is +4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NVR Inc (NVR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NVR Inc grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NVR Inc (NVR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NVR Inc (+4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.81 %: that much free cash flow NVR Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NVR Inc (NVR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NVR Inc it is $8,059 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $6,150. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NVR Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, NVR trades below its calculated fair value: price $6,150, fair value $8,059, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6,150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8,059). For NVR Inc the two are $1,909 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NVR Inc worth?
The market values NVR Inc at about $18.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $6,150; our models calculate a fair value of $8,059 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVR?
Our models span a range for NVR Inc: cautious scenario $5,270, base $8,059, optimistic $12,755 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $6,150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVR?
NVR Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8,059 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.0, P/B 4.5, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NVR?
The PEG ratio of NVR Inc is 4.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NVR Inc (NVR)?
Balance-sheet figures for NVR Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 33.3%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVR from its 52-week high?
NVR Inc trades at $6,150, about 29% below its 52-week high of $8,618 and 12% above the low of $5,501 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8,059 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NVR Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, Toll Brothers, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NVR Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $6,150, calculated fair value $8,059 (+31%), Quality Score 79/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVR calculated?
We run NVR Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8,059, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NVR Inc currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $6,150. Our model-based fair value is $8,059, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NVR Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($5,270 to $12,755) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NVR Inc (NVR) come from?
Earnings per share at NVR Inc grew +20.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.0 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NVR Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The market capitalisation of NVR Inc is $18.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NVR Inc is 1.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NVR Inc (NVR)?
Earnings per share at NVR Inc are $409.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The dividend yield of NVR Inc is 1.5% (payout 22.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The net margin of NVR Inc is 13.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NVR Inc is 33.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NVR Inc (NVR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NVR Inc is 30.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NVR Inc (NVR)?
The operating margin of NVR Inc is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NVR Inc (NVR)?
Revenue at NVR Inc is growing −21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NVR Inc (NVR)?
Earnings per share at NVR Inc are growing −28.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NVR Inc (NVR) hold?
NVR Inc holds more cash than debt, $760M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026