Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. stock BRL 43.24, price BRL 54.00, that is 19.9% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
🚩Analyst downgrades citing slower growth and consumer credit risks🚩XP platform model pressures wealth distribution fees🚩Lawsuits over Master CDB distribution practices
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$16.31 – R$81.71 · fair‑value band R$32.43 – R$54.05 · the R$54.00 price screens above the R$43.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Banco BTG Pactual S.A. provides financial products and services regarding commercial, investments, credit, financing, capital lease, insurance, and foreign exchange portfolios in Brazil and internationally.
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The company also offers personal investment services for a customized investment portfolio; international banking account services, including debit card, transfer, payment and receipt, and customer support services.
It also provides wealth management services, such as execution, market research, educational resources and analytics, and relationship management; family wealth management; checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, retirement accounts, and money market accounts; real estate financing; as well as corporate loans, term loans, lines of credit, and lender financing.
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. operates as a subsidiary of BTG Pactual Holding Financeira Ltda.
Stock analysis
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11) currently trades at R$54.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$43.24, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$313.41 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the R$54.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$8.82, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$32.43 (bear) to R$54.05 (bull), the price of R$54.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. reported revenue of R$115B in FY2025 versus R$16.9B in FY2021, a compound +61.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.9B in FY2025, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$259B (≈ $45.8B) Large · P/E ratio 87.2 · P/S ratio 12.1 · EPS (TTM) R$0.6140 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 24.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −20%, BPAC11 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$32.43Fair Value R$43.24BullR$54.05
Price R$54.00 · Downside -19.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.2317 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.2% vs 21.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 17%
AI conclusion: Record revenues and profits with robust credit and asset growth plus high return on equity mark the main strength, while negative cash flows despite profits and outlook downgrades form the central weakness.
Main risk: XP Investimentos could intensify competition in wealth management and independent advisor networks, squeezing margins on distribution and advisory services for BTG Pactual.
Bull case: BTG Pactual could leverage its investment banking expertise and digital platforms to retain advisors and clients by offering superior research and integrated services amid platform competition.
Bear case: If competition from XP and legal challenges over product distribution intensify, BTG Pactual might lose significant market share in wealth management and face higher compliance costs or settlements.
BTG Pactual posted record revenues and profits in the second quarter, with robust expansion in credit and assets under management alongside a high return on equity. Analysts have since downgraded the outlook, highlighting slower projected growth for 2027 and rising risks from a larger consumer credit portfolio. Will the moves into consumer finance and new markets add durable strength or leave the bank more exposed to credit cycles?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 454 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−19.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)39.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)52.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)87.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)55· sector 58
PAST (return on equity)98· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 46
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
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Is Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$43.24 versus a price of R$54.00, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPAC11?
Our model-based fair value for Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is R$43.24 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$54.00.
What is the quality score of BPAC11?
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$43.24 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$32.43, optimistic scenario R$54.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco BTG Pactual S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$43.24, about 20% lower versus a price of R$54.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$32.43, optimistic scenario R$54.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$45.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Banco BTG Pactual S.A. pay a dividend?
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. pays a dividend of R$0.348 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 11, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 56.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco BTG Pactual S.A. it is R$43.24 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of R$54.00. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Banco BTG Pactual S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, BPAC11 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$54.00, fair value R$43.24, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPAC11?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$54.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$43.24). For Banco BTG Pactual S.A. the two are R$10.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco BTG Pactual S.A. worth?
The market values Banco BTG Pactual S.A. at about R$259B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is R$54.00; our models calculate a fair value of R$43.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPAC11?
Our models span a range for Banco BTG Pactual S.A.: cautious scenario R$32.43, base R$43.24, optimistic R$54.05 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price R$54.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPAC11?
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 87.2 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$43.24 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 15.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 24.4%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPAC11 from its 52-week high?
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. trades at R$54.00, about 34% below its 52-week high of R$81.71 and 11% above the low of R$48.49 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$43.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco BTG Pactual S.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco BTG Pactual S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price R$54.00, calculated fair value R$43.24 (−20%), Quality Score 41/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPAC11 calculated?
We run Banco BTG Pactual S.A. through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R$43.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was R$54.00. Our model-based fair value is R$43.24, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco BTG Pactual S.A. right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11) come from?
Earnings per share at Banco BTG Pactual S.A. grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +28.2 %, EBIT margin −9.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Banco BTG Pactual S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
The market capitalisation of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is R$259B (≈ $45.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is 12.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
Earnings per share at Banco BTG Pactual S.A. are R$0.6140 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 87.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
The dividend yield of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is 0.6% (payout 56.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
The net margin of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is 13.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
The operating margin of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is 52.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
Revenue at Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +57.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11)?
Earnings per share at Banco BTG Pactual S.A. are growing +20.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11) generate?
The free cash flow of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is −R$26.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11) carry?
The net debt of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is R$23.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 12, 2026