Popular Inc (BPOP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Popular Inc stock $120, price $159, that is 24.7% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.40 – $177.87 · fair‑value band $97.29 – $168.94 · the $158.72 price screens above the $119.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking services for individuals and businesses in Puerto Rico, the United States, the British Virgin Islands, the Caribbean, and Latin America.
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The company offers savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; checking accounts; individual retirement accounts and educational contribution accounts; business accounts; investment accounts; private management accounts; and certificates of deposit.
It also provides commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, commercial multi-family, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including unsecured personal loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; lease financing comprising automobile loans and leases; renewable energy and marine loans; and startup program and healthcare hub financing.
In addition, the company offers auto and equipment leasing and financing; broker-dealer; international and private banking; insurance services, such as travel, property, auto and boat, health, life, and title; debit and credit cards; family of funds and Keogh plans; mobile easy deposit, foreign exchange, and fiduciary services; retirement plans; wire transfers; coordination of auto, aircraft, and helicopter loans; financial planning; investment advice; ATM; and online banking services.
Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.
Stock analysis
Popular Inc (BPOP) currently trades at $158.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $119.57, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $119.57 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $158.72 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $48.30, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $97.29 (bear) to $168.94 (bull), the price of $158.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Popular Inc reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was $833M in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.1B Large · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 3.24 · EPS (TTM) $14.90 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 32.7% · Return on equity 16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −25%, BPOP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$97.29Fair Value $119.57Bull$168.94
Price $158.72 · Downside -24.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.95 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $9.4M and none bought.
SaleAdorno Denissa RodriguezSenior VP & Comptroller2× since Nov 21, 2025: 1,600 shares, avg. $135.08$216,124Aug 24, 2026
SaleJavier D. FerrerPRESIDENT & CEO35,000 shares at $175.43$6.1MAug 10, 2026
SaleLidio SorianoExecutive Vice President3,000 shares at $174.51$523,530Aug 10, 2026
SaleLuis E. CesteroExecutive Vice President8,500 shares at $176.36$1.5MAug 4, 2026
SaleMaria Luisa FerreDirector6,461 shares at $174.64$1.1MJul 30, 2026
SaleAlejandro M SanchezDirector2× since Feb 26, 2026: 1,751 shares, avg. $142.48$249,481May 22, 2026
SaleMaria Cristina Gonzalez-NogueraExecutive Vice President6,200 shares at $148.51$920,762May 1, 2026
SaleAlejandro M BallesterDirector2× since Jan 30, 2026: 25,360 shares, avg. $148.37$3.8MApr 30, 2026
SaleRichard L CarrionDirector25,000 shares at $113.50$2.8MNov 24, 2025
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.96/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.2% vs 8.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.1% a year for the price and −4.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Popular maintains moderate regional strength through deposit and loan expansion with a diversified book and widening margins, yet shows limited innovation differentiation and faces high competition in regional banking.
Main risk: Named local banks such as First BanCorp and OFG Bancorp together with fintech providers could take deposits, loans and payments customers in Puerto Rico or force lower prices and margins on Popular's core offerings.
Bull case: By accelerating its own digital platforms and deepening ties with Evertec or new tech partners Popular could turn technology dependence into an efficiency advantage and retain or gain customers in Puerto Rico.
Bear case: If local rivals and fintechs capture more market share while regulatory actions raise costs and public deposits shrink Popular could face sustained pressure on deposits loans and net interest margins in its core Puerto Rico franchise.
Popular keeps expanding deposits and loans with a diversified book and low reliance on costly brokered funding while its net interest margin widens. Our models still see the stock as overvalued given those trends and the regional banking profile centered on Puerto Rico. Will the October 22 results show the margin gains and capital returns outweighing rate and credit risks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)32.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)38.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.62× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.24× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow14.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.4× · Pricier than median
PEG1.37× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)50· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)66· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)40· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Popular Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BPOP
Frequently asked questions
Is Popular Inc (BPOP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $119.57 versus a price of $158.72, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPOP?
Our model-based fair value for Popular Inc is $119.57 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $158.72.
What is the quality score of BPOP?
Popular Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Popular Inc (BPOP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $119.57 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $97.29, optimistic scenario $168.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Popular Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $119.57, about 25% lower versus a price of $158.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $97.29, optimistic scenario $168.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
Popular Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Popular Inc pay a dividend?
Popular Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Popular Inc (BPOP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Popular Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPOP use?
Our models discount Popular Inc at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Popular Inc that is +2.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Popular Inc (BPOP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Popular Inc grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies +2.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Popular Inc (BPOP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Popular Inc (+2.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.71 %: that much free cash flow Popular Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Popular Inc it is $119.57 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $158.72. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Popular Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BPOP trades above its calculated fair value: price $158.72, fair value $119.57, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPOP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($158.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($119.57). For Popular Inc the two are $39.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Popular Inc worth?
The market values Popular Inc at about $10.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $158.72; our models calculate a fair value of $119.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPOP?
Our models span a range for Popular Inc: cautious scenario $97.29, base $119.57, optimistic $168.94 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $158.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPOP?
Popular Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $119.57 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 9.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.6, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BPOP?
The PEG ratio of Popular Inc is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Popular Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 16.6%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPOP from its 52-week high?
Popular Inc trades at $158.72, about 11% below its 52-week high of $177.87 and 47% above the low of $108.27 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $119.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Popular Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Popular Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $158.72, calculated fair value $119.57 (−25%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPOP calculated?
We run Popular Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $119.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Popular Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $158.72. Our model-based fair value is $119.57, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Popular Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Popular Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The market capitalisation of Popular Inc is $10.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Popular Inc is 3.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
Earnings per share at Popular Inc are $14.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The dividend yield of Popular Inc is 2.0% (payout 21.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The net margin of Popular Inc is 32.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Popular Inc is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Popular Inc is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Popular Inc (BPOP)?
The operating margin of Popular Inc is 38.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Popular Inc (BPOP)?
Revenue at Popular Inc is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Popular Inc (BPOP)?
Earnings per share at Popular Inc are growing +34.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Popular Inc (BPOP) carry?
The net debt of Popular Inc is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026