Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $516M

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

• The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.76 – $42.85 · fair‑value band $31.55 – $52.59 · the $40.50 price screens below the $42.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) currently trades at $40.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.07, implying the stock looks roughly 3.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sierra Bancorp generated revenue of $153M at a net margin of 29.9%. Revenue grew 11.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at $383M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $31.55 (bear case) to $52.59 (bull case); at $40.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 4%, BSRR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($39.06) versus Dividend Discount ($12.98). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Sierra Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals and businesses in California. It accepts various deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts.

Full company description

Sierra Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals and businesses in California. It accepts various deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts. The company's loan products include real estate, commercial, mortgage warehouse, agricultural, and consumer loans. It also offers automated teller machines; electronic point-of-sale payment alternatives; multiple account access options; online account opening platform; online banking with bill-pay and mobile banking capabilities, including mobile check deposit; online lending solutions for consumers and small businesses; customer service center services; an automated telephone banking system; and remote deposit capture and payroll services. Sierra Bancorp was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Porterville, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sierra Bancorp reported revenue of $202M in FY2025 versus $131M in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was $42.3M in FY2025, compounding −0.4%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.