BTS Group (BTS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TH · Market cap 35.1B THB
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −4.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (1.05 THB to 2.35 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.99 THB – 9.64 THB · fair‑value band 1.05 THB – 2.35 THB · the 2.08 THB price screens above the 2.07 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
BTS Group (BTS) currently trades at 2.08 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.07 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 0.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BTS Group generated revenue of 23.4B THB at a net margin of -4.9%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.4%. Net debt stands at 169B THB. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.05 THB (bear case) to 2.35 THB (bull case); at 2.08 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -1%, BTS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (60.31 THB) versus Asset-Based (2.43 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited engages in mass transportation, marketing, and other businesses in Thailand. It operates in three segments: Move, Mix, and Match.
Full company description
BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited engages in mass transportation, marketing, and other businesses in Thailand. It operates in three segments: Move, Mix, and Match. The Move segment operates and maintains BTS Sky Train system; constructs, installs, operates, and maintains electric rails; and provides train procurement services and other related, and bus rapid transit services. Its Mix segment offers marketing solutions through offline and online media; advertising, digital, and sales services; system installation and integration services; and insurance brokerage services for offline and online distribution channels, as well as services related to rabbit card. The Match segment offers investment in various businesses, such as hotel business, rental business, management business real estate for sale business, insurance business, asset management business restaurants operations, construction service business, golf course services, system installation service business, and other services business. The company invests in the securities of other companies; and provides management and consultancy, real estate development and financial services business, property development, architecture and engineering work consultancy, office space rental, ecommerce, electronic payment, electronic money, bill payment, and CRM loyalty program and coupon kiosks services, as well as lending services through digital platform. In addition, it publishes and distributes books for edutainment; develops software and provides technology and system integration services; and manages food and beverage businesses, as well as involved in cleaning services business. The company was formerly known as Tanayong Public Company Limited and changed its name to BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited in May 2010. BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
BTS Group reported revenue of 21.1B THB in FY2026 versus 25.8B THB in FY2022, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −1.2B THB in FY2026.
of which total revenue +5.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Railroads · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $293.73 | $141.29 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $50.08 | $12.62 | -75% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.69 | $34.23 | -63% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$176.01 | C$92.68 | -47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $335.41 | $114.55 | -66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $295.54 | $144.80 | -51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥5.04 | ¥5.65 | +12% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.30 | HK$17.85 | -45% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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