BVZ Holding AG (BVZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of BVZ Holding AG CHF 1,039, price CHF 1,580, upside -34.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 601.37 – CHF 1,890 · fair‑value band CHF 661.81 – CHF 2,061 · the CHF 1,580 price screens above the CHF 1,039 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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BVZ Holding AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of public transport and tourism services in Switzerland.
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BVZ Holding AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of public transport and tourism services in Switzerland. The company offers transport on the Matterhorn Gotthard Railway between Disentis and Göschenen and Zermatt; Täsch"Zermatt train shuttle; car transport at the Furka Pass; freight transport between Visp and Zermatt; and Gornergrat Bahn and Glacier Express tourist offerings. It is also involved in rental of investment properties. BVZ Holding AG was founded in 1891 and is based in Brig, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
BVZ Holding AG (BVZN) currently trades at CHF 1,580, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 1,039, implying the stock looks roughly 52.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 2,910 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the CHF 1,580 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 206.51, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 661.81 (bear) to CHF 2,061 (bull), the price of CHF 1,580 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
BVZ Holding AG reported revenue of CHF 193M in FY2025 versus CHF 139M in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 32.2M in FY2025, compounding +73.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 312M · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 1.62 · EPS (TTM) CHF 163.20 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −34%, BVZN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 661.81Fair Value CHF 1,039Bull CHF 2,061
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 98.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 14%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 23%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.44× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.68× · Pricier than median
P/FCF16.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)59· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)32· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BVZ Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BVZN
Frequently asked questions
Is BVZ Holding AG (BVZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 1,039 versus a price of CHF 1,580, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BVZN?
Our model-based fair value for BVZ Holding AG is CHF 1,039 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 1,580.
What is the quality score of BVZN?
BVZ Holding AG has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 1,039 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 661.81, optimistic scenario CHF 2,061. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BVZ Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 1,039, about −34% upside versus a price of CHF 1,580 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 661.81, optimistic scenario CHF 2,061. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
BVZ Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 224M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does BVZ Holding AG pay a dividend?
BVZ Holding AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BVZ Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by +18.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BVZN use?
Our models discount BVZ Holding AG at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BVZ Holding AG that is +18.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BVZ Holding AG (BVZN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BVZ Holding AG grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +18.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BVZ Holding AG (+18.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.21 %: that much free cash flow BVZ Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BVZ Holding AG it is CHF 1,039 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 1,580. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BVZ Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BVZN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 1,580, fair value CHF 1,039, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BVZN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 1,580); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 1,039). For BVZ Holding AG the two are CHF 540.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BVZ Holding AG worth?
The market values BVZ Holding AG at about CHF 312M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 1,580; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 1,039 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BVZN?
Our models span a range for BVZ Holding AG: cautious scenario CHF 661.81, base CHF 1,039, optimistic CHF 2,061 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 1,580). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BVZN?
BVZ Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 1,039 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
Balance-sheet figures for BVZ Holding AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 1.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BVZN from its 52-week high?
BVZ Holding AG trades at CHF 1,580, about 16% below its 52-week high of CHF 1,890 and 55% above the low of CHF 1,019 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 1,039 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BVZ Holding AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BVZ Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 1,580, calculated fair value CHF 1,039 (−34%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BVZN calculated?
We run BVZ Holding AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 1,039, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. BVZ Holding AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was CHF 1,580. Our model-based fair value is CHF 1,039, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BVZ Holding AG right now?
The model range is unusually wide (CHF 661.81 to CHF 2,061). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN) come from?
Earnings per share at BVZ Holding AG grew +13.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin +7.7 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BVZ Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The market capitalisation of BVZ Holding AG is CHF 312M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BVZ Holding AG is 1.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
Earnings per share at BVZ Holding AG are CHF 163.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The dividend yield of BVZ Holding AG is 1.9% (payout 18.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The net margin of BVZ Holding AG is 16.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BVZ Holding AG is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BVZ Holding AG is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
The operating margin of BVZ Holding AG is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
Revenue at BVZ Holding AG is growing +11.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BVZ Holding AG (BVZN)?
Earnings per share at BVZ Holding AG are growing +52.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BVZ Holding AG (BVZN) carry?
The net debt of BVZ Holding AG is CHF 305M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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