BW LPG Limited (BWLP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BW LPG Limited $43.57, price $25.64, upside +69.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.00 – $26.14 · fair‑value band $28.35 – $56.64 · the $25.64 price screens below the $43.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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BW LPG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ship owning and chartering activities worldwide. It operates through Shipping and Product Services segments.
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BW LPG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ship owning and chartering activities worldwide. It operates through Shipping and Product Services segments. The company engages in the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG); provision of integrated LPG delivery services, as well as management services; wholesale and trade of LPG; and investment in commercial enterprises. As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated a fleet of 54 vessels, including 28 very large gas carriers, 7 large gas carriers time chartered in by product services, and 8 VLGCs owned by BW LPG India Pte. Ltd. BW LPG Limited was formerly known as BW Gas LPG Holding Limited and changed its name to BW LPG Limited in September 2013. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
BW LPG Limited (BWLP) currently trades at $25.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.57, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $52.03 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $25.64 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.08, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.35 (bear) to $56.64 (bull), the price of $25.64 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
BW LPG Limited reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +32.2%/yr. Reported net income was $249M in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $2.34 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 138% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 70%, BWLP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $28.35Fair Value $43.57Bull $56.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3630 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.3% vs 25.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+56.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.9% · Above median
Return on assets8.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)26.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
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Is BW LPG Limited (BWLP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $43.57 versus a price of $25.64, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BWLP?
Our model-based fair value for BW LPG Limited is $43.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.64.
What is the quality score of BWLP?
BW LPG Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $43.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.35, optimistic scenario $56.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BW LPG Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $43.57, about +70% upside versus a price of $25.64 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.35, optimistic scenario $56.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
BW LPG Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does BW LPG Limited pay a dividend?
BW LPG Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BW LPG Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -1.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BWLP use?
Our models discount BW LPG Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BW LPG Limited that is -1.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BW LPG Limited (BWLP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BW LPG Limited grew +32.8 % a year. The price currently implies -1.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BW LPG Limited (BWLP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BW LPG Limited (-1.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.15 %: that much free cash flow BW LPG Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BW LPG Limited it is $43.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $25.64. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BW LPG Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BWLP trades below its calculated fair value: price $25.64, fair value $43.57, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BWLP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($43.57). For BW LPG Limited the two are $17.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BW LPG Limited worth?
The market values BW LPG Limited at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $25.64; our models calculate a fair value of $43.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BWLP?
Our models span a range for BW LPG Limited: cautious scenario $28.35, base $43.57, optimistic $56.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $25.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BWLP?
BW LPG Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $43.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
Balance-sheet figures for BW LPG Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.9%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BWLP from its 52-week high?
BW LPG Limited trades at $25.64, about 2% below its 52-week high of $26.14 and 138% above the low of $10.78 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $43.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BW LPG Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BW LPG Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $25.64, calculated fair value $43.57 (+70%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BWLP calculated?
We run BW LPG Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $43.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BW LPG Limited currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $25.64. Our model-based fair value is $43.57, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BW LPG Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($28.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($28.35 to $56.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BW LPG Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The market capitalisation of BW LPG Limited is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BW LPG Limited is 0.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
Earnings per share at BW LPG Limited are $2.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The dividend yield of BW LPG Limited is 7.3% (payout 79.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The net margin of BW LPG Limited is 6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BW LPG Limited is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BW LPG Limited is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
The operating margin of BW LPG Limited is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
Revenue at BW LPG Limited is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BW LPG Limited (BWLP)?
Earnings per share at BW LPG Limited are growing +260% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BW LPG Limited (BWLP) carry?
The net debt of BW LPG Limited is $748M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026