Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Balwin Properties Ltd ZAR 5.93, price ZAR 4.35, upside +36.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R1.70 – R4.35 · fair‑value band R4.78 – R8.63 · the R4.35 price screens below the R5.93 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Balwin Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of residential properties in South Africa. It operates through Sale of Apartments and Land; Provision of Services to Residential Estates; Bond Commission; Property Rentals; and Balwin Foundation segments. The company sells sectional title apartments.
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Balwin Properties Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of residential properties in South Africa. It operates through Sale of Apartments and Land; Provision of Services to Residential Estates; Bond Commission; Property Rentals; and Balwin Foundation segments. The company sells sectional title apartments. It also engages in various businesses, including fibre infrastructure and related services; mortgage bonds; manages and deploys renewable assets, solar PV systems, and wastewater treatment plants; security and access control supply and services; internet services; and maintenance services to body corporates. In addition, the company is involved in the art activities; operation on run series; rental of residential properties; investment and management of commercial properties; management of lifestyle amenities within developments; rental of digital advertising and cell tower infrastructure; online sale of sports equipment; and resale of previously owned Balwin apartments. Balwin Properties Limited was founded in 1996 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN) currently trades at R4.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R5.93, implying the stock looks roughly 26.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R8.85 per share, and 12 of the 14 models we run sit above the R4.35 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R2.66, and 2 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R4.78 (bear) to R8.63 (bull), the price of R4.35 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Balwin Properties Ltd reported revenue of 2.7B ZAR in FY2026 versus 3.1B ZAR in FY2022, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 245M ZAR in FY2026, compounding −9.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 2.1B ZAC · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) R0.5100 · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% · Operating margin 13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 36%, BWN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R4.78Fair Value R5.93Bull R8.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2920 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8% vs −9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 13%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Is Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R5.93 versus a price of R4.35, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BWN?
Our model-based fair value for Balwin Properties Ltd is R5.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R4.35.
What is the quality score of BWN?
Balwin Properties Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R5.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario R4.78, optimistic scenario R8.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Balwin Properties Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R5.93, about +36% upside versus a price of R4.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R4.78, optimistic scenario R8.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
Balwin Properties Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Balwin Properties Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +32.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew 0.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BWN use?
Our models discount Balwin Properties Ltd at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Balwin Properties Ltd that is +32.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Balwin Properties Ltd grew 0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +32.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Balwin Properties Ltd (+32.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.27 %: that much free cash flow Balwin Properties Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Balwin Properties Ltd it is R5.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R4.35. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Balwin Properties Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BWN trades below its calculated fair value: price R4.35, fair value R5.93, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BWN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R4.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R5.93). For Balwin Properties Ltd the two are R1.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Balwin Properties Ltd worth?
The market values Balwin Properties Ltd at about 2.1B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R4.35; our models calculate a fair value of R5.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BWN?
Our models span a range for Balwin Properties Ltd: cautious scenario R4.78, base R5.93, optimistic R8.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R4.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BWN?
Balwin Properties Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R5.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Balwin Properties Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BWN from its 52-week high?
Balwin Properties Ltd trades at R4.35, at its 52-week high of R4.35 and 69% above the low of R2.57 (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R5.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Balwin Properties Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Balwin Properties Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R4.35, calculated fair value R5.93 (+36%), Quality Score 52/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BWN calculated?
We run Balwin Properties Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R5.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Balwin Properties Ltd currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was R4.35. Our model-based fair value is R5.93, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Balwin Properties Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R4.78). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R4.78 to R8.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN) come from?
Earnings per share at Balwin Properties Ltd grew −9.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin −9.4 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Balwin Properties Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
The market capitalisation of Balwin Properties Ltd is 2.1B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Balwin Properties Ltd is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
Earnings per share at Balwin Properties Ltd are R0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
The net margin of Balwin Properties Ltd is 9.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Balwin Properties Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Balwin Properties Ltd is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
The operating margin of Balwin Properties Ltd is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
Revenue at Balwin Properties Ltd is growing +7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN)?
Earnings per share at Balwin Properties Ltd are growing −4.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Balwin Properties Ltd (BWN) carry?
The net debt of Balwin Properties Ltd is 3.0B ZAC (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 19.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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