Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of Cal-Maine Foods Inc $75.38, price $63.44, upside +18.8%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.34 – $113.47 · fair‑value band $55.16 – $93.88 · the $63.44 price screens below the $75.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, grading, packaging, marketing, and distribution of shell eggs, egg products, and prepared foods.
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Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, grading, packaging, marketing, and distribution of shell eggs, egg products, and prepared foods. The company offers specialty shell eggs, including cage-free, organic, brown, free-range, and pasture-raised and nutritionally enhanced eggs, as well as conventional eggs under the Egg-Land's Best, Land O' Lakes, Farmhouse Eggs, Sunups, Sunny Meadow, and 4-Grain brand names. It also provides ready-to-eat products, such as hard-cooked eggs, egg wraps, protein pancakes, crepes and wrap-ups; and sells feed, miscellaneous byproducts, and resale products. The company sells its products to various customers, including national and regional grocery store chains, club stores, independent supermarkets, foodservice distributors, and egg product consumers primarily in the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western, northeastern, and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States, as well as Puerto Rico. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Ridgeland, Mississippi.
Stock analysis
Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) currently trades at $63.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.38, implying the stock looks roughly 15.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $143.02 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the $63.44 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $37.77, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $55.16 (bear) to $93.88 (bull), the price of $63.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Cal-Maine Foods Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2026 versus $1.8B in FY2022, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $317M in FY2026, compounding +24.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $6.73 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 10.9% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 19%, CALM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $55.16Fair Value $75.38Bull $93.88
Price $63.44 · Upside +18.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.54 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−31.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+76.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+72.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.77.8% vs 3.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.0% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate business quality rests on margins and cash flow plus the shift toward specialty and prepared foods, yet remains limited by the commodity nature of conventional eggs.
Main risk: Commodity cycles in conventional eggs risk pressuring earnings durability even as the company invests through the cycle with a strong balance sheet.
Cal-Maine is growing its prepared foods capacity by more than 60 percent by the first half of fiscal 2028, with specialty eggs and prepared foods already accounting for 54 percent of sales. Conventional egg prices dropped nearly 60 percent and drove the recent quarterly loss, yet the company continues investing through the cycle with a strong balance sheet. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Will the push into higher-margin segments build more durable earnings before conventional supply and demand rebalance?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 288 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+18.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−11.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−49.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $75.38 versus a price of $63.44, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CALM?
Our model-based fair value for Cal-Maine Foods Inc is $75.38 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $63.44.
What is the quality score of CALM?
Cal-Maine Foods Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $75.38 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $55.16, optimistic scenario $93.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cal-Maine Foods Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $75.38, about +19% upside versus a price of $63.44 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $55.16, optimistic scenario $93.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
Cal-Maine Foods Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does Cal-Maine Foods Inc pay a dividend?
Cal-Maine Foods Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.87% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cal-Maine Foods Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CALM use?
Our models discount Cal-Maine Foods Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cal-Maine Foods Inc that is -14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cal-Maine Foods Inc grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies -14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cal-Maine Foods Inc (-14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.13 %: that much free cash flow Cal-Maine Foods Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cal-Maine Foods Inc it is $75.38 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of $63.44. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cal-Maine Foods Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, CALM trades below its calculated fair value: price $63.44, fair value $75.38, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CALM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($63.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($75.38). For Cal-Maine Foods Inc the two are $11.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cal-Maine Foods Inc worth?
The market values Cal-Maine Foods Inc at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is $63.44; our models calculate a fair value of $75.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CALM?
Our models span a range for Cal-Maine Foods Inc: cautious scenario $55.16, base $75.38, optimistic $93.88 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price $63.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CALM?
Cal-Maine Foods Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $75.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 1.1, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CALM?
The PEG ratio of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is 2.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cal-Maine Foods Inc (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CALM from its 52-week high?
Cal-Maine Foods Inc trades at $63.44, about 32% below its 52-week high of $93.50 and 1% above the low of $62.70 (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $75.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cal-Maine Foods Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cal-Maine Foods Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price $63.44, calculated fair value $75.38 (+19%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CALM calculated?
We run Cal-Maine Foods Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $75.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Cal-Maine Foods Inc currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was $63.44. Our model-based fair value is $75.38, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cal-Maine Foods Inc right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) come from?
Earnings per share at Cal-Maine Foods Inc grew +10.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cal-Maine Foods Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The market capitalisation of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is 1.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
Earnings per share at Cal-Maine Foods Inc are $6.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The dividend yield of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is 3.9% (payout 36.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The net margin of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is 10.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is 26.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
The operating margin of Cal-Maine Foods Inc is −11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
Revenue at Cal-Maine Foods Inc is growing −49.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)?
Earnings per share at Cal-Maine Foods Inc are growing −89.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) hold?
Cal-Maine Foods Inc holds more cash than debt, $107M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 13, 2026