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China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited $2.75, price $1.50, upside +83.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited
CAOVF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $2.75 · Strongly undervalued (+83.3%)
!Quality 56/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −5.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓21.9% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.9000 to $4.86
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8935 – $2.63 · fair‑value band $0.9000 – $4.86 · the $1.50 price screens below the $2.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development, commercial property operations, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and Macau.
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China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development, commercial property operations, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and Macau. It is involved in the rental of properties; material procurement and supply chain management activities; issuance of guaranteed notes; property consultancy and real estate agency; and construction and building design consultancy activities. The company provides loan financing and security investment services; operates hotels; and develops and sells properties. In addition, the company engages in the investment and financing, land consolidation, regional planning, real estate development, engineering construction, industrial import, and property management businesses. Further, it offers urban services, including office buildings, flexible working space, shopping malls, star-rated hotels, long-term rental apartments, logistics parks, and architectural design and construction. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is a subsidiary of China Overseas Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF) currently trades at $1.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.75, implying the stock looks roughly 45.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $3.78 per share, and 14 of the 16 models we run sit above the $1.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.21, and 2 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.9000 (bear) to $4.86 (bull), the price of $1.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited reported revenue of 165B CNY in FY2025 versus 297B CNY in FY2021, a compound −13.7%/yr. Reported net income was 12.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −29.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $22.4B · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) $0.1700 · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% · Operating margin 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 83%, CAOVF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9000
Fair Value $2.75
Bull $4.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$3.87
$3.78
$3.86
76
FCF DCF
$0.3700
$1.70
$3.98
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.39
$3.75
$6.70
71
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.3700
$1.70
$3.98
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.8300
$2.62
$5.05
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.39
$3.75
$6.70
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.5800
$2.22
$4.72
60
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.02
$3.03
$6.08
63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.6900
$1.43
$2.27
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.6900
$1.21
$1.50
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$2.15
$2.87
$3.58
58
P/B Multiple
$2.15
$2.87
$3.58
55
EV/EBIT
$3.12
$4.62
$6.12
65
EV/EBITDA
$2.18
$3.36
$4.55
66
EV/Revenue
$1.10
$2.17
$3.23
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.65
$3.55
$5.29
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.3600
$1.61
$3.69
70
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.8300
$2.57
$4.76
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.87
$3.78
$3.86
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
56/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability
19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−18.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.3% vs 9.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 12%
2025 sits 314% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (17 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Wall Street Dares to Ask If China’s Property Turnaround Is Close
- iGreen Think Tank Releases Independent ESG Research, Highlighting China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd.'s Verified Low-Carbon and Govern
- China Overseas Land & Investment (SEHK:688): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 | HK$107.10 | HK$155.14 | +45% |
| China Resources Land Limited 1109 | HK$28.64 | HK$71.60 | +150% |
| CK Asset Holdings 1113 | HK$45.90 | HK$71.49 | +56% |
| Hongkong Land Holdings H78 | $8.57 | $1.52 | −82% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹658.40 | ₹167.48 | −75% |
| Sino Land Company 0083 | HK$9.94 | HK$7.28 | −27% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,165 | ₹274.14 | −76% |
| Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 | ¥5.77 | ¥5.87 | +2% |
| China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 | ¥7.18 | ¥6.04 | −16% |
| The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004 | HK$19.39 | HK$8.31 | −57% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.75 versus a price of $1.50, about +83% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CAOVF?
Our model-based fair value for China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is $2.75 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.50.
What is the quality score of CAOVF?
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.75 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9000, optimistic scenario $4.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Overseas Land & Investment Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.75, about +83% upside versus a price of $1.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.9000, optimistic scenario $4.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 168B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Overseas Land & Investment Limited it is $2.75 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $1.50. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Overseas Land & Investment Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CAOVF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.50, fair value $2.75, a gap of about +83% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAOVF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.75). For China Overseas Land & Investment Limited the two are $1.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Overseas Land & Investment Limited worth?
The market values China Overseas Land & Investment Limited at about $22.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $1.50; our models calculate a fair value of $2.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAOVF?
Our models span a range for China Overseas Land & Investment Limited: cautious scenario $0.9000, base $2.75, optimistic $4.86 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $1.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CAOVF from its 52-week high?
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited trades at $1.50, about 29% below its 52-week high of $2.10 and 15% above the low of $1.31 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Overseas Land & Investment Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Overseas Land & Investment Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $1.50, calculated fair value $2.75 (+83%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAOVF calculated?
We run China Overseas Land & Investment Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Overseas Land & Investment Limited currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.50. Our model-based fair value is $2.75, about +83% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Overseas Land & Investment Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.9000 to $4.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF) come from?
Earnings per share at China Overseas Land & Investment Limited grew −4.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −8.0 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
The market capitalisation of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is $22.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 8.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
Earnings per share at China Overseas Land & Investment Limited are $0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
The net margin of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
The operating margin of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
Revenue at China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is growing −13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF)?
Earnings per share at China Overseas Land & Investment Limited are growing −23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF) generate?
The free cash flow of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 9.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (CAOVF) carry?
The net debt of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is 144B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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