Capex S.A (CAPX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AR · Market cap 799B ARS
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +10.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3,056 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 55.85 ARS – 9,440 ARS · fair‑value band 2,265 ARS – 3,056 ARS · the 4,445 ARS price screens above the 3,020 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Capex S.A (CAPX) currently trades at 4,445 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,020 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Capex S.A generated revenue of 418B ARS at a net margin of -14.6%. Revenue grew 12.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.1%. Net debt stands at 489B ARS. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2,265 ARS (bear case) to 3,056 ARS (bull case); at 4,445 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -32%, CAPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (6,583 ARS) versus Dividend Discount (1,660 ARS). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Capex S.A., an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons in Argentina. The company is involved in the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas; construction and development of a combined-cycle thermal power plant with an installed capacity of 672 MW and an LPG plant; production of hydrogen and oxygen; and …
Full company description
Capex S.A., an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons in Argentina. The company is involved in the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas; construction and development of a combined-cycle thermal power plant with an installed capacity of 672 MW and an LPG plant; production of hydrogen and oxygen; and production and sale of propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as generation of energy from wind farms and hydrogen/oxygen. It also processes and separates liquid gases derived from gas. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Vicente López, Argentina. Capex S.A. is a subsidiary of Companias Asociadas Petroleras S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Capex S.A reported revenue of 407B ARS in FY2025 versus 18.0B ARS in FY2021, a compound +118.2%/yr. Reported net income was 25.9B ARS in FY2025.
CAPX screens 32% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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