Cascades Inc (CAS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$1.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +46.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$14.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$7.53 to C$14.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$6.64 – C$17.83 · fair‑value band C$7.53 – C$14.68 · the C$17.83 price screens above the C$11.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Cascades Inc (CAS) currently trades at C$17.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$11.75, implying the stock looks roughly 34.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cascades Inc generated revenue of C$4.7B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. Net debt stands at C$1.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$7.53 (bear case) to C$14.68 (bull case); at C$17.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -23% fair-value upside, at -34%, CAS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$11.75) versus Dividend Discount (C$4.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cascades Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, converts, and markets packaging and tissue products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through two segments, Packaging Products, and Tissue Papers.
Full company description
Cascades Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, converts, and markets packaging and tissue products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through two segments, Packaging Products, and Tissue Papers. It offers food packaging solutions, such as trays and accessories, produce baskets, boxes and trays, egg packaging, bulk bins, and cup carriers; protective packaging, including regular boxes, protection and handling, die-cut boxes, shipping trays, and large format boxes; e-commerce packaging solutions comprising adjustable cardboard boxes, compact mailer boxes, die-cut mailer boxes, and quick assembly boxes; and retail and customer packaging, die-cut mailer boxes, and POS and displays. The company also provides hygiene and tissue paper products; and fiber based materials, which includes tissue paper jumbo rolls, containerboard, specialty papers, technological barrier solutions, and uncoated recycled paperboard. In addition, it offers transportation, specialized warehousing, and inventory management services; and recycling solutions consisting of recycling services, brokering and trading materials, secure shredding, recycling equipment, industrial and commercial, retailers and grocers, municipal sector, and graphic design and printing. The company provides its products and services under the Cascades Fresh, Cascades Protect, Cascades IMGN, Cascades Fluff & Tuff, and Cascades PRO brand names. Cascades Inc. was incorporated in 1964 and is headquartered in Kingsey Falls, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cascades Inc reported revenue of C$4.8B in FY2025 versus C$4.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was C$70.0M in FY2025.
CAS screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 106.80 | kr 125.82 | +18% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥27.73 | ¥20.16 | -27% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 31.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -48% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 3,350 TWD | 675.50 TWD | -80% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,193 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 134.00 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -5% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹208.56 | ₹161.42 | -23% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹247.30 | ₹111.65 | -55% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 21,650 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +45% |
| PT Panca Budi Idaman Tbk, PBID | 525.00 IDR | 774.13 IDR | +47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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