Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Castrol India Limited ₹108, price ₹202, upside -46.4%, quality 84 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹79.94 – ₹252.91 · fair‑value band ₹81.76 – ₹140.84 · the ₹201.67 price screens above the ₹108.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Castrol India Limited manufactures and markets automotive and industrial lubricants in India and internationally.
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Castrol India Limited manufactures and markets automotive and industrial lubricants in India and internationally. The company offers engine and transmission oils, brake fluids, coolants, cleaners, and greases; EV transmission fluids, thermal fluids, and greases; and brake fluid chain lubricants, fork oils, gear oils, coolants, diesel exhaust fluids, hydraulic fluids, rust preventives, cleaners, and forming oils. The company offers its products under the Castor EDGE, Castrol's MAGNATEC, Castrol GTX, Castrol ON, Castrol Activ, Castrol POWER1, Castrol GO!, Castrol VECTON, Castrol CRB, and Castrol RX brands. It serves automotive, aerospace, Data centre and IT cooling, machinery manufacturing, power generation, oil and gas, robotics, wind, marine, and other industries. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Mumbai, India. Castrol India Limited operates as a subsidiary of Castrol Limited.
Stock analysis
Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND) currently trades at ₹201.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹108.04, implying the stock looks roughly 86.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ₹156.31 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹201.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹12.87, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹81.76 (bear) to ₹140.84 (bull), the price of ₹201.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Castrol India Limited reported revenue of ₹57.2B in FY2025 versus ₹41.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹9.5B in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹200B (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 20.8 · P/S ratio 3.46 · EPS (TTM) ₹9.69 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 16.6% · Return on equity 45.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 49.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −46%, CASTROLIND screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹81.76Fair Value ₹108.04Bull ₹140.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹7.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.6% vs 4.4%, steady
Profit margin 2004 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score84 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−46.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)45.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets22.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)16.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.8× · Pricier than median
P/B10.50× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.41× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA14.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)44· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Castrol India Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CASTROLIND
Frequently asked questions
Is Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹108.04 versus a price of ₹201.67, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CASTROLIND?
Our model-based fair value for Castrol India Limited is ₹108.04 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹201.67.
What is the quality score of CASTROLIND?
Castrol India Limited has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹108.04 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹81.76, optimistic scenario ₹140.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Castrol India Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹108.04, about −46% upside versus a price of ₹201.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹81.76, optimistic scenario ₹140.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
Castrol India Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹58.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Castrol India Limited pay a dividend?
Castrol India Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Castrol India Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CASTROLIND use?
Our models discount Castrol India Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Castrol India Limited that is +13.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Castrol India Limited grew +13.8 % a year. The price currently implies +13.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Castrol India Limited (+13.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.26 %: that much free cash flow Castrol India Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Castrol India Limited it is ₹108.04 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹201.67. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Castrol India Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CASTROLIND trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹201.67, fair value ₹108.04, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CASTROLIND?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹201.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹108.04). For Castrol India Limited the two are ₹93.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Castrol India Limited worth?
The market values Castrol India Limited at about ₹200B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹201.67; our models calculate a fair value of ₹108.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CASTROLIND?
Our models span a range for Castrol India Limited: cautious scenario ₹81.76, base ₹108.04, optimistic ₹140.84 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹201.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CASTROLIND?
Castrol India Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹108.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.5, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Castrol India Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 45.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CASTROLIND from its 52-week high?
Castrol India Limited trades at ₹201.67, at its 52-week high of ₹201.67 and 16% above the low of ₹173.52 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹108.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Castrol India Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Castrol India Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹201.67, calculated fair value ₹108.04 (−46%), Quality Score 84/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CASTROLIND calculated?
We run Castrol India Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹108.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Castrol India Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was ₹201.67. Our model-based fair value is ₹108.04, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Castrol India Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹140.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND) come from?
Earnings per share at Castrol India Limited grew +5.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Castrol India Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The market capitalisation of Castrol India Limited is ₹200B (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Castrol India Limited is 3.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
Earnings per share at Castrol India Limited are ₹9.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The dividend yield of Castrol India Limited is 7.0% (payout 146%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The net margin of Castrol India Limited is 16.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Castrol India Limited is 45.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Castrol India Limited is 49.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
The operating margin of Castrol India Limited is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
Revenue at Castrol India Limited is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND)?
Earnings per share at Castrol India Limited are growing +3.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Castrol India Limited (CASTROLIND) hold?
Castrol India Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹3.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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