Caterpillar Inc (CATR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CA · Market cap C$599B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$21.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (C$7.78 to C$21.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range C$16.45 – C$75.72 · fair‑value band C$7.78 – C$21.39 · the C$57.48 price screens above the C$12.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Caterpillar Inc (CATR) currently trades at C$57.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$12.83, implying the stock looks roughly 77.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Caterpillar Inc generated revenue of C$64.7B at a net margin of 14.3%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 46.3%. Net debt stands at C$33.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$7.78 (bear case) to C$21.39 (bull case); at C$57.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -78%, CATR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$17.27) versus Asset-Based (C$1.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. Its Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; compact track, wheel, track-type, backhoe, and skid steer loaders; and related parts and tools. The company's Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, tractors, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, fleet management products, landfill and soil compactors, machinery components, autonomous ready vehicles and solutions, work tools, and safety services and mining performance solutions, as well as related parts and services. Its Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; turbines, centrifugal gas compressors, and related services; and diesel-electric locomotives and components, and other rail-related products. The company's Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, revolving charge accounts, repair/rebuild financing services, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services. Its All Other segment offers wear and maintenance components; parts distribution; logistics solutions and distribution services; dealer portfolio management, and brand management and marketing strategy services; and digital investment services. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Caterpillar Inc reported revenue of C$67.6B in FY2025 versus C$59.4B in FY2022, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$8.9B in FY2025, compounding +9.8%/yr from FY2022.
CATR screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Deere & Company →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deere & Company DE | $619.77 | $182.29 | -71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 344.00 | kr 288.08 | -16% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $131.06 | $94.80 | -28% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 254.50 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.91 | ¥20.84 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.25 | ¥11.79 | +43% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.42 | HK$53.57 | +29% |
| Ashok Leyland Limited ASHOKLEY | ₹176.40 | ₹117.07 | -34% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥28.69 | ¥42.00 | +46% |
| Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co 1157 | HK$6.96 | HK$11.25 | +62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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