Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. $24.95, price $47.41, upside -47.4%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range $20.65 – $49.31 · fair‑value band $22.27 – $38.50 · the $47.41 price screens above the $24.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Chain Bridge Bank, N.A. that provides a range of commercial and personal banking services in the United States.
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Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Chain Bridge Bank, N.A. that provides a range of commercial and personal banking services in the United States. The company offers deposits, treasury management, payments, loans, commercial lending, residential mortgage financing, consumer loans, trust and estate administration, wealth management, noninterest and interest-bearing checking, money market accounts, residential loans, and asset custody. It also provides other account related services, such as wire transfers, safety deposit box rentals, and lockbox; and mobile deposits, ACH, and bill payment services. Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) currently trades at $47.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.95, implying the stock looks roughly 90.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $36.10 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $47.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $17.28, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $22.27 (bear) to $38.50 (bull), the price of $47.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $59.4M in FY2025 versus $18.4M in FY2019, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was $20.2M in FY2025, compounding +26.7%/yr from FY2019.
Key figures
Market cap $311M · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 3.85 · EPS (TTM) $4.06 · Net margin 34.1% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 61.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −47%, CBNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.27Fair Value $24.95Bull $38.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.98 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
’15
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’22
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+41.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20% vs 15%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 43%
2025 sits 124% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.1% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−47% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)41% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)61% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth55% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.84× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.73× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF27.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CBNA
Frequently asked questions
Is Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.95 versus a price of $47.41, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CBNA?
Our model-based fair value for Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is $24.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $47.41.
What is the quality score of CBNA?
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.27, optimistic scenario $38.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.95, about −47% upside versus a price of $47.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.27, optimistic scenario $38.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $65.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +21.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CBNA use?
Our models discount Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. that is +18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. grew +21.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (+18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.69 %: that much free cash flow Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. it is $24.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $47.41. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CBNA trades above its calculated fair value: price $47.41, fair value $24.95, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CBNA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($47.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.95). For Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. the two are $22.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. worth?
The market values Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. at about $311M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $47.41; our models calculate a fair value of $24.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CBNA?
Our models span a range for Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.: cautious scenario $22.27, base $24.95, optimistic $38.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $47.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CBNA?
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CBNA from its 52-week high?
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. trades at $47.41, about 4% below its 52-week high of $49.31 and 63% above the low of $29.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $47.41, calculated fair value $24.95 (−47%), Quality Score 53/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CBNA calculated?
We run Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $47.41. Our model-based fair value is $24.95, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($38.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
The market capitalisation of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is $311M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is 3.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
Earnings per share at Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. are $4.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
The net margin of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is 34.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
The operating margin of Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is 61.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
Revenue at Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. is growing +54.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA)?
Earnings per share at Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. are growing +108% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. (CBNA) hold?
Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $453M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026