Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Commencement Bancorp Inc $22.25, price $19.10, upside +16.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.45 – $19.30 · fair‑value band $16.68 – $27.81 · the $19.10 price screens below the $22.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Commencement Bancorp Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Commencement Bank that provides various banking products and services for individuals, and small and midsized businesses in western Washington. It accepts checking, demand, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposits, as well as certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts.
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Commencement Bancorp Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Commencement Bank that provides various banking products and services for individuals, and small and midsized businesses in western Washington. It accepts checking, demand, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposits, as well as certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts. The company also offers term loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, and reserve overdraft lines; real estate loans, including residential 1-4 family, multi-family, commercial, construction and land loans; business lines of credit; government backed loans; sweep accounts; and credit cards. In addition, it provides remote deposit capture, lockbox remittance processing, positive pay, and automated clearing house origination services, as well as merchant services, debit cards, ATM services, and online and mobile banking services. The company operates branches in Tacoma, Enumclaw, Auburn, Olympia, and Gig Harbo, Washington. Commencement Bancorp Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.
Stock analysis
Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA) currently trades at $19.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.25, implying the stock looks roughly 14.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $22.37 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $19.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.71, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.68 (bear) to $27.81 (bull), the price of $19.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Commencement Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $27.5M in FY2025 versus $18.7M in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $6.7M in FY2025, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $71.2M · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 2.52 · EPS (TTM) $1.85 · Net margin 24.4% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 28.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 16%, CBWA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.68Fair Value $22.25Bull $27.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+36.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.7% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
2025 sits 128% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+68.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +64.9% a year for the price.
Compare Commencement Bancorp Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+17% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)26% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.25 versus a price of $19.10, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CBWA?
Our model-based fair value for Commencement Bancorp Inc is $22.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.10.
What is the quality score of CBWA?
Commencement Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.68, optimistic scenario $27.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Commencement Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.25, about +16% upside versus a price of $19.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.68, optimistic scenario $27.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
Commencement Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Commencement Bancorp Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +68.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CBWA use?
Our models discount Commencement Bancorp Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Commencement Bancorp Inc that is +68.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Commencement Bancorp Inc grew +10.6 % a year. The price currently implies +68.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Commencement Bancorp Inc (+68.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.43 %: that much free cash flow Commencement Bancorp Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Commencement Bancorp Inc it is $22.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $19.10. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Commencement Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CBWA trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.10, fair value $22.25, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CBWA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.25). For Commencement Bancorp Inc the two are $3.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Commencement Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Commencement Bancorp Inc at about $71.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $19.10; our models calculate a fair value of $22.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CBWA?
Our models span a range for Commencement Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $16.68, base $22.25, optimistic $27.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $19.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CBWA?
Commencement Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Commencement Bancorp Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CBWA from its 52-week high?
Commencement Bancorp Inc trades at $19.10, about 1% below its 52-week high of $19.30 and 47% above the low of $13.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Commencement Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Commencement Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $19.10, calculated fair value $22.25 (+16%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CBWA calculated?
We run Commencement Bancorp Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Commencement Bancorp Inc currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $19.10. Our model-based fair value is $22.25, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Commencement Bancorp Inc right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Commencement Bancorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
The market capitalisation of Commencement Bancorp Inc is $71.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Commencement Bancorp Inc is 2.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
Earnings per share at Commencement Bancorp Inc are $1.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
The net margin of Commencement Bancorp Inc is 24.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Commencement Bancorp Inc is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Commencement Bancorp Inc is 0.9% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
The operating margin of Commencement Bancorp Inc is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
Revenue at Commencement Bancorp Inc is growing +17.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA)?
Earnings per share at Commencement Bancorp Inc are growing +29.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Commencement Bancorp Inc (CBWA) carry?
The net debt of Commencement Bancorp Inc is $13.3M (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 43.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026