TUI AG (TUI1) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €3.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 31 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from €27.57 to €21.46 (−22.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 191% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€16.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.55 – €21.58 · fair‑value band €16.10 – €26.83 · the €7.36 price screens below the €21.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
TUI AG (TUI1) currently trades at €7.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €21.46, implying the stock looks roughly 191.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, TUI AG generated revenue of €24.2B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue declined 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 38.1%. Net debt stands at €1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €16.10 (bear case) to €26.83 (bull case); at €7.36, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at 191%, TUI1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€35.55) versus Asset-Based (€2.33). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services internationally. The company operates hotels and resorts under the Mora, Royalton, Riu, Robinson, TUI Blue, TUI Magic Life, Atlantica, Grupotel, Iberotel, Akra, TUI Suneo, and AQI brands; and cruises under the TUI Cruises, Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, and Marella brands.
Full company description
TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services internationally. The company operates hotels and resorts under the Mora, Royalton, Riu, Robinson, TUI Blue, TUI Magic Life, Atlantica, Grupotel, Iberotel, Akra, TUI Suneo, and AQI brands; and cruises under the TUI Cruises, Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, and Marella brands. It also provides an online market for tours and activities, including experiences and tours; and operates aircraft. It distributes its services through markets and airlines, direct to customers, and via third parties, such as online travel agents and tour operators. The company was formerly known as Preussag AG and changed its name to TUI AG in June 2002. TUI AG was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Hanover, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TUI AG reported revenue of €24.2B in FY2025 versus €4.7B in FY2021, a compound +50.4%/yr. Reported net income was €636M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −18.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
Compare TUI AG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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