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MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MHP Hotel AG €2.82, price €1.24, upside +127.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · DE · ISIN DE000A3E5C24

MH Some data Sep 23, 2026

MHP Hotel AG

CDZ0 · XETRA

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value €2.82 · Strongly undervalued (+127%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +447.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/12)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€1.71 €1.04 Fair Value €2.82 Feb 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

55‑month range €1.04 – €1.71 · fair‑value band €2.05 – €3.64 · the €1.24 price screens below the €2.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

MHP Hotel AG operates as an independent hotel investment and management company. It designs and implements hotel, restaurant, and bar concepts; and operates as a partnership link between hotel investors and franchisors, as well as between its hotel guests and on-site hotel teams. The company was formerly known as Lifespot Capital AG.

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MHP Hotel AG operates as an independent hotel investment and management company. It designs and implements hotel, restaurant, and bar concepts; and operates as a partnership link between hotel investors and franchisors, as well as between its hotel guests and on-site hotel teams. The company was formerly known as Lifespot Capital AG. MHP Hotel AG was founded in 2012 and is based in Munich, Germany.

Stock analysis

MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0) currently trades at €1.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.82, implying the stock looks roughly 56.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €5.78 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the €1.24 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.8600, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €2.05 (bear) to €3.64 (bull), the price of €1.24 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

MHP Hotel AG reported revenue of €178M in FY2025 versus €36.2K in FY2020, a compound +447.5%/yr. Reported net income was €5.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €63.5M · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) €0.1200 · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 7.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 127%, CDZ0 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.05 Fair Value €2.82 Bull €3.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0878 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings €1.07 €2.03 €3.71 71
EPV €1.26 €1.41 €1.52 71
ROIC Compounder €1.26 €1.56 €1.84 70
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €1.07 €2.03 €3.71 71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.8500 €5.90 €8.29 61
Lynch FV €3.05 €4.36 €5.67 59
PEG = 1.0 €3.05 €4.36 €5.67 55
EPV €1.26 €1.41 €1.52 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple €2.05 €2.74 €3.42 63
P/S Multiple €1.59 €2.12 €2.65 58
P/B Multiple €1.59 €2.12 €2.65 55
EV/EBIT €2.60 €3.45 €4.29 66
EV/EBITDA €3.42 €4.53 €5.64 67
EV/Revenue €1.99 €2.82 €3.64 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.6400 €0.8600 €1.29 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €1.01 €1.07 €1.16 68
ROIC Compounder €1.26 €1.56 €1.84 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €4.05 €5.78 €7.52 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+447.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+463.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−459.3% (2020) → 5.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 1 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 167 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +127% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 24% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.21× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.41× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)42 · sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Marriott International, Inc MAR $348.06 $150.61 −57%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT $308.44 $268.06 −13%
InterContinental Hotels Group IHG $154.85 $97.57 −37%
Hyatt Hotels Corporation H $157.80 $49.88 −68%
H World Group HTHT $43.33 $63.57 +47%
Accor SA AC €46.64 €40.27 −14%
The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL ₹743.70 ₹502.32 −32%
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH $67.86 $29.84 −56%
Hanjin Kal, 180640 140,100 KRW 28,728 KRW −79%
Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH $100.32 $73.41 −27%

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MHP Hotel AG · Fair Value
€2.82 +56%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MHP Hotel AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CDZ0

Frequently asked questions

Is MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.82 versus a price of €1.24, about +127% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CDZ0?
Our model-based fair value for MHP Hotel AG is €2.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.24.
What is the quality score of CDZ0?
MHP Hotel AG has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.05, optimistic scenario €3.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MHP Hotel AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.82, about +127% upside versus a price of €1.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €2.05, optimistic scenario €3.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
MHP Hotel AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €178M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MHP Hotel AG it is €2.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €1.24. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MHP Hotel AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CDZ0 trades below its calculated fair value: price €1.24, fair value €2.82, a gap of about +127% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CDZ0?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.82). For MHP Hotel AG the two are €1.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MHP Hotel AG worth?
The market values MHP Hotel AG at about €63.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €1.24; our models calculate a fair value of €2.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CDZ0?
Our models span a range for MHP Hotel AG: cautious scenario €2.05, base €2.82, optimistic €3.64 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €1.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CDZ0?
MHP Hotel AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
Balance-sheet figures for MHP Hotel AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CDZ0 from its 52-week high?
MHP Hotel AG trades at €1.24, about 21% below its 52-week high of €1.56 and 4% above the low of €1.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MHP Hotel AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MHP Hotel AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €1.24, calculated fair value €2.82 (+127%), Quality Score 57/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CDZ0 calculated?
We run MHP Hotel AG through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MHP Hotel AG currently trades 127 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €1.24. Our model-based fair value is €2.82, about +127% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MHP Hotel AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€2.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of MHP Hotel AG

How large is the market capitalisation of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
The market capitalisation of MHP Hotel AG is €63.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MHP Hotel AG is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
Earnings per share at MHP Hotel AG are €0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
The net margin of MHP Hotel AG is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MHP Hotel AG is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MHP Hotel AG is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
The operating margin of MHP Hotel AG is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0)?
Revenue at MHP Hotel AG is growing +23.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does MHP Hotel AG (CDZ0) generate?
The free cash flow of MHP Hotel AG is −€6.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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