Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cencosud S.A CLP 2,241, price CLP 2,029, upside +10.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,115 CLP – 3,310 CLP · fair‑value band 1,197 CLP – 3,145 CLP · the 2,029 CLP price screens below the 2,241 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Cencosud S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Uruguay, the United States, and China. It engages in the operation of supermarkets, hypermarkets, home improvement stores, retail stores, department stores, and shopping centers, as well as provision of financial services.
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Cencosud S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Uruguay, the United States, and China. It engages in the operation of supermarkets, hypermarkets, home improvement stores, retail stores, department stores, and shopping centers, as well as provision of financial services. The company was founded in 1963 and is based in Las Condes, Chile. Cencosud S.A. operates as a subsidiary of PK One Limited.
Stock analysis
Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD) currently trades at 2,029 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,241 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 9.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 2,516 CLP per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the 2,029 CLP price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 579.75 CLP, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 1,197 CLP (bear) to 3,145 CLP (bull), the price of 2,029 CLP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cencosud S.A reported revenue of 16.6T CLP in FY2025 versus 11.8T CLP in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 315B CLP in FY2025, compounding −9.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.3T CLP (≈ $6.3B) · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) 102.60 CLP · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 10%, CENCOSUD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,197 CLPFair Value 2,241 CLPBull 3,145 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (56.76 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in CLP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in CLP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2009 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Chile: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.8% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 120 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.90× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cencosud S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CENCOSUD
Frequently asked questions
Is Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,241 CLP versus a price of 2,029 CLP, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CENCOSUD?
Our model-based fair value for Cencosud S.A is 2,241 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,029 CLP.
What is the quality score of CENCOSUD?
Cencosud S.A has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,241 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,197 CLP, optimistic scenario 3,145 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cencosud S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,241 CLP, about +10% upside versus a price of 2,029 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1,197 CLP, optimistic scenario 3,145 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
Cencosud S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.6T CLP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Cencosud S.A pay a dividend?
Cencosud S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cencosud S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CENCOSUD use?
Our models discount Cencosud S.A at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cencosud S.A that is +5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cencosud S.A grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cencosud S.A (+5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.32 %: that much free cash flow Cencosud S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cencosud S.A it is 2,241 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,029 CLP. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cencosud S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CENCOSUD trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,029 CLP, fair value 2,241 CLP, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CENCOSUD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,029 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,241 CLP). For Cencosud S.A the two are 211.63 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cencosud S.A worth?
The market values Cencosud S.A at about 6.3T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,029 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 2,241 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CENCOSUD?
Our models span a range for Cencosud S.A: cautious scenario 1,197 CLP, base 2,241 CLP, optimistic 3,145 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,029 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CENCOSUD?
Cencosud S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,241 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CENCOSUD?
The PEG ratio of Cencosud S.A is 1.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cencosud S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CENCOSUD from its 52-week high?
Cencosud S.A trades at 2,029 CLP, about 36% below its 52-week high of 3,164 CLP and 7% above the low of 1,900 CLP (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,241 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cencosud S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cencosud S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,029 CLP, calculated fair value 2,241 CLP (+10%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CENCOSUD calculated?
We run Cencosud S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,241 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cencosud S.A currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 2,029 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 2,241 CLP, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cencosud S.A right now?
The model range is unusually wide (1,197 CLP to 3,145 CLP). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD) come from?
Earnings per share at Cencosud S.A grew +1.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −3.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cencosud S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The market capitalisation of Cencosud S.A is 6.3T CLP (≈ $6.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cencosud S.A is 0.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
Earnings per share at Cencosud S.A are 102.60 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The dividend yield of Cencosud S.A is 1.2% (payout 24.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The net margin of Cencosud S.A is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cencosud S.A is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cencosud S.A is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
The operating margin of Cencosud S.A is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
Revenue at Cencosud S.A is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD)?
Earnings per share at Cencosud S.A are growing −30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cencosud S.A (CENCOSUD) carry?
The net debt of Cencosud S.A is 3.8T CLP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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