Shinsegae (004170) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shinsegae KRW 291,388, price KRW 347,000, upside -16.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 119,861 KRW – 776,000 KRW · fair‑value band 217,454 KRW – 291,388 KRW · the 347,000 KRW price screens above the 291,388 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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SHINSEGAE Inc. operates department stores in South Korea. The company operates through Department Store, Wholesale and Retail Industry, Real Estate Industry, Terminal industry, Hospitality, Duty-Free Store, and Others segments.
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SHINSEGAE Inc. operates department stores in South Korea. The company operates through Department Store, Wholesale and Retail Industry, Real Estate Industry, Terminal industry, Hospitality, Duty-Free Store, and Others segments. It also manufactures and retails clothing and furniture; manufactures, retails, and distributes cosmetics; develops and leases real estate properties and vehicle terminal; offers advisory and online retail services; and operates duty-free stores. In addition, the company engages in the information and communication, trading, broadcast program production and supply; financial investment, and hotel businesses. SHINSEGAE Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Shinsegae (004170) currently trades at 347,000 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 291,388 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 19.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 688,668 KRW per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the 347,000 KRW price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at 29,283 KRW, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 217,454 KRW (bear) to 291,388 KRW (bull), the price of 347,000 KRW sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Shinsegae reported revenue of 6.9T KRW in FY2025 versus 6.3T KRW in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 13.9B KRW in FY2025, compounding −53.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3T KRW (≈ $3.7B) · P/S ratio 0.75 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) 7.1T KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −16%, 004170 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 217,454 KRWFair Value 291,388 KRWBull 291,388 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.0% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 120 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shinsegae Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/004170
Frequently asked questions
Is Shinsegae (004170) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 291,388 KRW versus a price of 347,000 KRW, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 004170?
Our model-based fair value for Shinsegae is 291,388 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 347,000 KRW.
What is the quality score of 004170?
Shinsegae has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shinsegae (004170)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 291,388 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 217,454 KRW, optimistic scenario 291,388 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shinsegae stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 291,388 KRW, about −16% upside versus a price of 347,000 KRW (overvalued). Cautious scenario 217,454 KRW, optimistic scenario 291,388 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shinsegae (004170)?
Shinsegae reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.1T KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shinsegae pay a dividend?
Shinsegae currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shinsegae (004170)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shinsegae would have to grow free cash flow by +4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 004170 use?
Our models discount Shinsegae at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shinsegae that is +4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shinsegae (004170) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shinsegae grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shinsegae (004170) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shinsegae (+4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shinsegae (004170)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.10 %: that much free cash flow Shinsegae produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shinsegae (004170)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shinsegae it is 291,388 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 347,000 KRW. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shinsegae stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 004170 trades above its calculated fair value: price 347,000 KRW, fair value 291,388 KRW, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 004170?
No. The price is what the market pays today (347,000 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (291,388 KRW). For Shinsegae the two are 55,612 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shinsegae worth?
The market values Shinsegae at about 5.3T KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 347,000 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 291,388 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 004170?
Our models span a range for Shinsegae: cautious scenario 217,454 KRW, base 291,388 KRW, optimistic 291,388 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 347,000 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shinsegae (004170)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shinsegae (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 004170 from its 52-week high?
Shinsegae trades at 347,000 KRW, about 55% below its 52-week high of 776,000 KRW and 106% above the low of 168,437 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 291,388 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shinsegae?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Cencosud S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shinsegae stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 347,000 KRW, calculated fair value 291,388 KRW (−16%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 004170 calculated?
We run Shinsegae through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 291,388 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shinsegae itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shinsegae (004170)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 347,000 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 291,388 KRW, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shinsegae right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (291,388 KRW). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shinsegae
How large is the market capitalisation of Shinsegae (004170)?
The market capitalisation of Shinsegae is 5.3T KRW (≈ $3.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shinsegae (004170)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shinsegae is 0.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Shinsegae (004170)?
The dividend yield of Shinsegae is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shinsegae (004170)?
The net margin of Shinsegae is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shinsegae (004170)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shinsegae is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shinsegae (004170)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shinsegae is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shinsegae (004170)?
The operating margin of Shinsegae is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shinsegae (004170)?
Revenue at Shinsegae is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shinsegae (004170)?
Earnings per share at Shinsegae are growing +109% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shinsegae (004170) carry?
The net debt of Shinsegae is 3.7T KRW (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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