Colefax Group (CFX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Colefax Group stock £34.11, price £13.80, upside +147.2%, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £5.66 – £14.76 · fair‑value band £25.58 – £42.51 · the £13.80 price screens below the £34.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Colefax Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, marketing, distribution, and retailing of furnishing fabrics, wallpapers, trimmings, upholstered furniture, and related products in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, and internationally.
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It operates in two divisions, Product and Decorating. The company is also involved in selling of antiques; and provision of interior and architectural design, project management, decoration, and furnishing services for private and commercial clients.
It sells its products to interior designers, and retail fabric and wallpaper shops under the Colefax and Fowler, Cowtan and Tout, Jane Churchill, Manuel Canovas, and Larsen brands.
The company was formerly known as Colefax and Flower Group PLC and changed its name to Colefax Group PLC in September 1999. Colefax Group PLC was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Colefax Group (CFX) currently trades at £13.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £34.11, implying the stock looks roughly 60% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £35.42 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the £13.80 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £14.71, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £25.58 (bear) to £42.51 (bull), the price of £13.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Colefax Group reported revenue of £116M in FY2026 versus £102M in FY2022, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was £7.8M in FY2026, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £72.1M Micro · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) £1.41 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 21.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 147%, CFX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£25.58Fair Value £34.11Bull£42.51
Price £13.80 · Upside +147.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.7122 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.9% vs 16.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
2026 sits 65% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.8% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from resilient US fabric demand that offsets softer UK luxury conditions, yet thin public data yields no clear durable moat signals and low confidence across all factors.
Main risk: Softer UK luxury conditions could curb demand in the fabric division and decorating operations.
Colefax's fabric division draws strength from resilient US demand that offsets softer UK luxury conditions and its decorating operations. Insiders participated in the recent tender offer returning capital while family holdings were consolidated. Our models currently see it as undervalued, yet will American growth continue to dominate or will domestic headwinds limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 297 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Colefax Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CFX
Frequently asked questions
Is Colefax Group (CFX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £34.11 versus a price of £13.80, about +147% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CFX?
Our model-based fair value for Colefax Group is £34.11 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £13.80.
What is the quality score of CFX?
Colefax Group has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Colefax Group (CFX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £34.11 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £25.58, optimistic scenario £42.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Colefax Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £34.11, about +147% upside versus a price of £13.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £25.58, optimistic scenario £42.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Colefax Group (CFX)?
Colefax Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £116M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Colefax Group pay a dividend?
Colefax Group currently shows a dividend yield of 0.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Colefax Group (CFX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Colefax Group pays a dividend of £0.063 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 4.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 42.24 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Colefax Group (CFX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Colefax Group would have to grow free cash flow by -18.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CFX use?
Our models discount Colefax Group at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Colefax Group that is -18.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Colefax Group (CFX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Colefax Group grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -18.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Colefax Group (CFX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Colefax Group (-18.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.44 %: that much free cash flow Colefax Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Colefax Group (CFX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Colefax Group it is £34.11 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of £13.80. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Colefax Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CFX trades below its calculated fair value: price £13.80, fair value £34.11, a gap of about +147% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CFX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£13.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£34.11). For Colefax Group the two are £20.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Colefax Group worth?
The market values Colefax Group at about £72.1M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is £13.80; our models calculate a fair value of £34.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CFX?
Our models span a range for Colefax Group: cautious scenario £25.58, base £34.11, optimistic £42.51 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price £13.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CFX?
Colefax Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £34.11 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 9.8. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Colefax Group (CFX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Colefax Group (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 21.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CFX from its 52-week high?
Colefax Group trades at £13.80, about 7% below its 52-week high of £14.76 and 51% above the low of £9.15 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £34.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Colefax Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, SharkNinja, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Colefax Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price £13.80, calculated fair value £34.11 (+147%), Quality Score 79/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CFX calculated?
We run Colefax Group through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £34.11 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Colefax Group currently trades 60% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was £13.80. Our model-based fair value is £34.11, about +147% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Colefax Group right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£25.58). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Colefax Group (CFX) come from?
Earnings per share at Colefax Group grew +16.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.0 %, EBIT margin +5.3 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Colefax Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The market capitalisation of Colefax Group is £72.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Colefax Group is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Colefax Group (CFX)?
Earnings per share at Colefax Group are £1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The dividend yield of Colefax Group is 0.5% (payout 4.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The net margin of Colefax Group is 6.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Colefax Group is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Colefax Group (CFX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Colefax Group is 12.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Colefax Group (CFX)?
The operating margin of Colefax Group is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Colefax Group (CFX)?
Revenue at Colefax Group is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Colefax Group (CFX)?
Earnings per share at Colefax Group are growing +35.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Colefax Group (CFX) carry?
The net debt of Colefax Group is £8.1M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026