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Colefax Group (CFX) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 73.2M GBX

CG Colefax Group CFX · LSE
Price£14.60
Fair Value£28.64
Upside+96.2%
Quality79/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.42% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 55/100
Evidence: High Range £21.48 – £35.80 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from £27.72 to £28.64 (+3.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −0.3% over the past month.

A strong business, screening 96% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£21.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£14.85 £4.91 Fair Value £28.64 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £4.91 – £14.85 · fair‑value band £21.48 – £35.80 · the £14.60 price screens below the £28.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Colefax Group (CFX) currently trades at £14.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £28.64, implying the stock looks roughly 96.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Colefax Group generated revenue of £116M at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.9%. Net debt stands at £4.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £21.48 (bear case) to £35.80 (bull case); at £14.60, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 96%, CFX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £23.36 £28.22 £33.53 80
Residual Income £6.89 £9.25 £27.10 76
Rev-Margin DCF £21.76 £29.49 £37.74 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £23.12 £28.46 £34.54 38
Owner Earnings £22.73 £27.96 £33.92 31
5Y Revenue Exit £21.76 £29.15 £38.07 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £27.38 £39.03 £51.87 41
5Y P/E Exit £23.07 £31.45 £39.65 38
10Y Revenue Exit £21.85 £27.86 £34.98 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £25.21 £33.54 £43.49 37
10Y P/E Exit £22.91 £29.19 £35.95 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £8.85 £19.58 £24.98 54
PEG = 1.0 £3.14 £4.48 £5.82 46
EPV £14.66 £15.89 £16.90 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.4800 £0.6700 £0.8400 70
DDM Multi-Stage £0.4800 £0.6300 £0.7800 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £21.48 £28.64 £35.80 63
P/S Multiple £16.60 £22.13 £27.67 58
P/B Multiple £16.60 £22.13 £27.67 55
EV/EBIT £30.28 £38.92 £47.56 53
EV/EBITDA £34.93 £45.12 £55.31 54
EV/Revenue £21.83 £29.32 £36.81 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £3.53 £4.73 £7.06 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £23.36 £28.22 £33.53 80
Rev-Margin DCF £21.76 £29.49 £37.74 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £6.89 £9.25 £27.10 76
ROIC Compounder £14.87 £16.36 £17.71 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £15.94 £22.77 £29.60 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£29.15) versus Dividend Discount (£0.6300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 116M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.7%
Net margin 6.1%
Return on equity 21.9%
Free cash flow 12.1M GBX FY2025
P/E ratio 10.9
More key figures
Operating margin 9.4%
EPS (TTM) £1.22
Dividend yield 0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +25.0%
Net debt 4.0M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 79/100

Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 71
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Colefax Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, marketing, distribution, and retailing of furnishing fabrics, wallpapers, trimmings, upholstered furniture, and related products in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two divisions, Product and Decorating.

Full company description

Colefax Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, marketing, distribution, and retailing of furnishing fabrics, wallpapers, trimmings, upholstered furniture, and related products in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two divisions, Product and Decorating. The company is also involved in selling of antiques; and provision of interior and architectural design, project management, decoration, and furnishing services for private and commercial clients. It sells its products to interior designers, and retail fabric and wallpaper shops under the Colefax and Fowler, Cowtan and Tout, Jane Churchill, Manuel Canovas, and Larsen brands. The company was formerly known as Colefax and Flower Group PLC and changed its name to Colefax Group PLC in September 1999. Colefax Group PLC was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Colefax Group reported revenue of £110M in FY2025 versus £77.9M in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was £6.5M in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£110M
Latest YoY
+2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Avg. growth/yr (39Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.1%
Revenue +9.0%/yr
FY21 £77.9M
FY22 £102M
FY23 £105M
FY24 £107M
FY25 £110M
Net income +12.6%/yr
FY21 £4.0M
FY22 £8.5M
FY23 £6.7M
FY24 £5.8M
FY25 £6.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +13.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.9 pp

of which total revenue +3.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +6.2 pp

EBIT margin +3.2 pp
Tax rate +0.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Colefax Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CFX

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +96% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 12% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.80× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.85× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 8.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 22
FUTURE 59 · sector 0
PAST 87 · sector 19
HEALTH 99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 8 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Midea Group 000333 ¥82.71 ¥107.22 +30%
Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 ¥38.25 ¥88.02 +130%
Haier Smart Home Co 600690 ¥21.46 ¥36.04 +68%
King Slide Works Co 2059 8,655 TWD 1,917 TWD -78%
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 ¥155.59 ¥38.95 -75%
SharkNinja, Inc SN $154.53 $89.07 -42%
Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 ¥26.33 ¥48.03 +82%
Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 ¥43.85 ¥44.84 +2%
COWAY Co 021240 96,700 KRW 112,530 KRW +16%
Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 ¥50.13 ¥54.11 +8%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Colefax Group (CFX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £28.64 versus a price of £14.60, about +96% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CFX?
Our model-based fair value for Colefax Group is £28.64 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £14.60.
What is the quality score of CFX?
Colefax Group has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Colefax Group (CFX)?
Colefax Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £116M (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CFX?
The net profit margin of Colefax Group is about 6.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Colefax Group pay a dividend?
Colefax Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.46% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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