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Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Conifex Timber Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN CA2073241044

CT Conifex Timber Inc logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Conifex Timber Inc

CFXTF · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

Fair value $0.0876 · Undervalued (+23%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -38.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$2.32 $0.0411 Fair Value $0.0876 Oct 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0411 – $2.32 · fair‑value band $0.0704 – $0.1202 · the $0.0710 price screens below the $0.0876 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Conifex Timber Inc. manufactures, sells, and distributes lumber in the United States, Canada, and Japan. It is involved in the timber harvesting, reforestation, and forest management activities; processing logs into lumber and wood chips; lumber finishing; and the production of electricity for external sale and internal supply.

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Conifex Timber Inc. manufactures, sells, and distributes lumber in the United States, Canada, and Japan. It is involved in the timber harvesting, reforestation, and forest management activities; processing logs into lumber and wood chips; lumber finishing; and the production of electricity for external sale and internal supply. The company also engages in the provision of by-products and residuals, such as wood chips, trim blocks, sawdust, shavings, and barks. The company also engages in bioenergy operations; and forest management, such as harvesting, and fiber management. It operates 36-megawatt bioenergy power generation plant with output capacity up to 230 gigawatt hours of electricity per year. The company was formerly known as West Fourth Capital Inc. and changed its name to Conifex Timber Inc. Conifex Timber Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF) currently trades at $0.0710, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0876, implying the stock looks roughly 19.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.0704 (bear) to $0.1202 (bull), the price of $0.0710 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Conifex Timber Inc reported revenue of C$143M in FY2025 versus C$251M in FY2021, a compound −13.1%/yr. Reported net income was −C$35.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.1M · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8000 · Net margin −25.0% · Return on equity −72.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2% · Operating margin −45.3% · Revenue (TTM) $120M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 23%, CFXTF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0704 Fair Value $0.0876 Bull $0.1202
Model Each model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence Evidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.6100 $0.8200 $1.22 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.6100 $0.8200 $1.22 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 74
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality Growth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 16/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.7%
Revenue growth 3 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.9%
Revenue growth 5 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 16 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Profit margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2020) → −26.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 81 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −14% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −38% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −45% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −51% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.37× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.08× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $173.49 $190.84 +10%
West Fraser Timber Co WFG C$95.76 C$33.38 −65%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI $80.56 $101.34 +26%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ C$67.00 C$115.40 +72%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $75.44 $51.39 −32%
Zhongfu Straits (Pingtan) Development Company 000592 ¥7.75 ¥1.56 −80%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹717.90 ₹201.01 −72%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥11.18 ¥15.06 +35%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$14.97 C$4.54 −70%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$14.08 C$6.43 −54%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Conifex Timber Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CFXTF

Frequently asked questions

Is Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0876 versus a price of $0.0710, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CFXTF?
Our model-based fair value for Conifex Timber Inc is $0.0876 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0710.
What is the quality score of CFXTF?
Conifex Timber Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0876 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0704, optimistic scenario $0.1202. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Conifex Timber Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0876, about +23% upside versus a price of $0.0710 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0704, optimistic scenario $0.1202. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
Conifex Timber Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $120M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Conifex Timber Inc it is $0.0876 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.0710. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Conifex Timber Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CFXTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0710, fair value $0.0876, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CFXTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0710); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0876). For Conifex Timber Inc the two are $0.0166 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Conifex Timber Inc worth?
The market values Conifex Timber Inc at about $4.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.0710; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0876 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CFXTF?
Our models span a range for Conifex Timber Inc: cautious scenario $0.0704, base $0.0876, optimistic $0.1202 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.0710). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Conifex Timber Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −72.0%, debt of 1.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CFXTF from its 52-week high?
Conifex Timber Inc trades at $0.0710, about 73% below its 52-week high of $0.2621 and 73% above the low of $0.0411 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0876 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Conifex Timber Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, West Fraser Timber Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Stella-Jones Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Conifex Timber Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.0710, calculated fair value $0.0876 (+23%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CFXTF calculated?
We run Conifex Timber Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0876, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Conifex Timber Inc currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Conifex Timber Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Conifex Timber Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
The market capitalisation of Conifex Timber Inc is $4.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Conifex Timber Inc is 0.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
Earnings per share at Conifex Timber Inc are $−0.8000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
The net margin of Conifex Timber Inc is −25.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Conifex Timber Inc is −72.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Conifex Timber Inc is −4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
The operating margin of Conifex Timber Inc is −45.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
Revenue at Conifex Timber Inc is growing −51.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF)?
Earnings per share at Conifex Timber Inc are growing −45.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF) generate?
The free cash flow of Conifex Timber Inc is −$10.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Conifex Timber Inc (CFXTF) carry?
The net debt of Conifex Timber Inc is $80.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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