Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.2B
Centerra Gold Inc
CGAU · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +36.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $16.35 (bear) to $25.57 (bull), base $20.96. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 65/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.41 – $21.24 · fair‑value band $16.35 – $25.57 · the $21.24 price screens above the $20.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) currently trades at $21.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.96, implying the stock looks roughly 1.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Centerra Gold Inc generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 40.3%. Revenue grew 61.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $498M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.35 (bear case) to $25.57 (bull case); at $21.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 222% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -1%, CGAU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($43.86) versus Dividend Discount ($3.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties.
Full company description
Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties. Its principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; the Öksüt gold mine located in Türkiye; the Kemess project in British Columbia, Canada; the Goldfield District project in Nevada, United States; the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho; and 75% owned the Endako Mine in British Columbia, Canada. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Centerra Gold Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $900M in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was $594M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Stock Looks Below Fair Value Despite A 227% Run
- Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Boosted Production Guidance and ...
- Centerra Gold Reports Higher Q2 Profit, Raises Oksut Gold Production Guidance
- Centerra Gold Inc. Q2 Income Rises
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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