Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Centerra Gold Inc stock $19.53, price $21.78, that is 10.3% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.40 – $24.25 · fair‑value band $15.29 – $28.49 · the $21.78 price screens above the $19.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Centerra Gold Inc. engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally.
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The company also owns and operates a molybdenum business unit, which includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties.
Its principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; the Öksüt gold mine located in Türkiye; the Kemess project in British Columbia, Canada; the Goldfield District project in Nevada, United States; the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho; and 75% owned the Endako Mine in British Columbia, Canada.
The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) currently trades at $21.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.53, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $52.93 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $21.78 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.80, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.29 (bear) to $28.49 (bull), the price of $21.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Centerra Gold Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $900M in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was $594M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.4B Mid · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 4.49 · EPS (TTM) $2.17 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 44.7% · Return on equity 32.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −10%, CGAU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$15.29Fair Value $19.53Bull$28.49
Price $21.78 · Downside -10.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 16.0% / 22.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.6% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited moat as a price taker in the commodity market forms the core weakness, while advancing project execution offers the main operational strength.
Main risk: Execution risks on new production streams from assets like Thompson Creek could constrain output growth and limit cash flow generation.
Centerra Gold is moving from studies into execution on several assets, including the restart of its Thompson Creek molybdenum mine targeted for mid-2027. This adds exposure beyond gold and copper while the company advances projects like Goldfield. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the new production streams deliver enough to close that gap, or will execution risks keep the valuation in check?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 202 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)32.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)36.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)27.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)53.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.53 versus a price of $21.78, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CGAU?
Our model-based fair value for Centerra Gold Inc is $19.53 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.78.
What is the quality score of CGAU?
Centerra Gold Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.53 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.29, optimistic scenario $28.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Centerra Gold Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.53, about 10% lower versus a price of $21.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.29, optimistic scenario $28.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
Centerra Gold Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Centerra Gold Inc pay a dividend?
Centerra Gold Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Centerra Gold Inc pays a dividend of $0.2 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 19, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2020. The payout ratio is 23.8% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 9.2%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.42 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Centerra Gold Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +27.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CGAU use?
Our models discount Centerra Gold Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Centerra Gold Inc that is +27.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Centerra Gold Inc grew +13.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +27.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Centerra Gold Inc (+27.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.15 %: that much free cash flow Centerra Gold Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Centerra Gold Inc it is $19.53 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $21.78. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Centerra Gold Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CGAU trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.78, fair value $19.53, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGAU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.53). For Centerra Gold Inc the two are $2.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Centerra Gold Inc worth?
The market values Centerra Gold Inc at about $4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $21.78; our models calculate a fair value of $19.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGAU?
Our models span a range for Centerra Gold Inc: cautious scenario $15.29, base $19.53, optimistic $28.49 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $21.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGAU?
Centerra Gold Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.6 (reported for FY2025: 7.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2021, FY2025 ex one-offs: 8.4. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Centerra Gold Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 32.9%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGAU from its 52-week high?
Centerra Gold Inc trades at $21.78, about 10% below its 52-week high of $24.25 and 94% above the low of $11.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Centerra Gold Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Centerra Gold Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $21.78, calculated fair value $19.53 (−10%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGAU calculated?
We run Centerra Gold Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $19.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Centerra Gold Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.78. Our model-based fair value is $19.53, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Centerra Gold Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($15.29 to $28.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) come from?
Earnings per share at Centerra Gold Inc grew +16.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate −3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +13.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Centerra Gold Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The market capitalisation of Centerra Gold Inc is $4.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Centerra Gold Inc is 4.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
Earnings per share at Centerra Gold Inc are $2.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The dividend yield of Centerra Gold Inc is 0.9% (payout 23.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 9.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The net margin of Centerra Gold Inc is 44.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Centerra Gold Inc is 32.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Centerra Gold Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
The operating margin of Centerra Gold Inc is 27.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
Revenue at Centerra Gold Inc is growing +53.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU)?
Earnings per share at Centerra Gold Inc are growing +9.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) hold?
Centerra Gold Inc holds more cash than debt, $498M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026