ESR-REIT (CGIUF) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.3B

A solid business, but screening 23% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($0.3900 to $1.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9137 – $2.53 · fair‑value band $0.3900 – $1.28 · the $1.66 price screens above the $1.28 fair value. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

ESR-REIT (CGIUF) currently trades at $1.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.28, implying the stock looks roughly 22.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, ESR-REIT generated revenue of $449M at a net margin of 7.1%. Revenue grew 17.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.3900 (bear case) to $1.28 (bull case); at $1.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -23%, CGIUF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($3.06) versus Multiples ($0.6700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

ESR-REIT is a leading New Economy and future-ready Asia Pacific S-REIT. Listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited since 25 July 2006, ESR-REIT invests in quality income-producing industrial properties in key gateway markets.

Full company description

ESR-REIT is a leading New Economy and future-ready Asia Pacific S-REIT. Listed on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited since 25 July 2006, ESR-REIT invests in quality income-producing industrial properties in key gateway markets. As at 31 December 2025, ESR-REIT holds interests in a diversified portfolio of logistics properties, high-specifications industrial properties, business parks and general industrial properties with total assets of approximately 5.9 billion US dollar. Its portfolio comprises 70 properties (excluding 48 Pandan Road held through a joint venture) located across the developed markets of Singapore (50 assets), Australia (18 assets) and Japan (2 assets), with a total gross floor area of approximately 2.4 million sqm, as well as investments in three property funds in Australia. ESR-REIT is also a constituent of the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index. ESR-REIT is managed by ESR-REIT Management (S) Limited and sponsored by ESR. The Manager is owned by ESR (99.0%) and Shanghai Summit Pte. Ltd. (1.0%), respectively. ESR-REIT was establised on March 31, 2006 and incorporated in Singapore.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ESR-REIT reported revenue of $454M in FY2025 versus $241M in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was $31.7M in FY2025, compounding −25.3%/yr from FY2021.

CGIUF screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Prologis, Inc →

Peer Group

REIT - Industrial · 63 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.