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Global Net Lease, Inc (GNL) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.9B

GN Global Net Lease, Inc logo Global Net Lease, Inc GNL · US
Price$9.23
Fair Value$15.72
Upside+70.3%
Quality41/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -8.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
8.33% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: High Range $8.70 – $15.72 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Share price +3.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 70% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • A fairly wide model range ($8.70 to $15.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$10.92 $5.23 Fair Value $15.72 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.23 – $10.92 · fair‑value band $8.70 – $15.72 · the $9.23 price screens below the $15.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Global Net Lease, Inc (GNL) currently trades at $9.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.72, implying the stock looks roughly 70.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Global Net Lease, Inc generated revenue of $472M at a net margin of -8.7%. Revenue declined 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.8%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $8.70 (bear case) to $15.72 (bull case); at $9.23, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 70%, GNL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $1.91 $10.24 $23.34 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.6800 $8.14 $23.78 74
Gordon GGM $8.68 $15.64 $21.53 70
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.68 $8.29 $25.08 38
5Y Revenue Exit $5.92 $18.76 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $11.03 $28.68 $63.36 41
10Y Revenue Exit $0.5100 $10.87 $16.99 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $8.31 $33.01 $76.98 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.68 $15.64 $21.53 70
DDM Multi-Stage $8.68 $14.29 $16.71 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT $3.62 $8.01 $12.39 53
EV/EBITDA $14.57 $22.60 $30.63 54
EV/Revenue $0.8300 $3.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.94 $5.28 $7.88 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.91 $10.24 $23.34 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.6800 $8.14 $23.78 74

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($14.29) versus Asset-Based ($5.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $472M
Revenue growth (YoY) -17.5%
Net margin -8.7%
Return on equity -2.8%
Free cash flow $189M FY2025
Operating margin 31.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.4400
Dividend yield 8.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +333%
Net debt $2.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 13
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 95
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Global Net Lease, Inc. is a publicly traded internally managed real estate investment trust that focuses on acquiring and managing a global portfolio of income producing net lease assets across the U.S., and Western and Northern Europe. Global Net Lease, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, United States.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Global Net Lease, Inc reported revenue of $498M in FY2025 versus $391M in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$225M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$498M
Latest YoY
−38.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+9.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.6%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+111.2%
Revenue +6.2%/yr
FY21 $391M
FY22 $379M
FY23 $515M
FY24 $805M
FY25 $498M
Net income
FY21 $11.4M
FY22 $12.0M
FY23 −$212M
FY24 −$132M
FY25 −$225M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Global Net Lease, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNL

Peer Group

REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +70% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 31% · Below median
Revenue growth -18% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 8.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.32× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.17× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.12× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 10.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.2× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 13
FUTURE 0 · sector 13
PAST 0 · sector 20
HEALTH 34 · sector 72
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 97

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Goodman Group GMG A$29.11 A$7.37 -75%
VICI Properties Inc VICI $26.73 $41.74 +56%
W. P. Carey Inc WPC $76.69 $35.59 -54%
Charter Hall Group CHC A$21.90 A$11.46 -48%
Fibra Uno FUNO11 31.10 MXN 63.56 MXN +104%
COV COV €52.55 €62.39 +19%
The GPT Group GPT A$4.89 A$3.49 -29%
Mirvac Group MGR A$1.70 A$0.5700 -66%
KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS 8.85 MYR 6.91 MYR -22%
CRRUN CRRUN C$17.65 C$17.89 +1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Global Net Lease, Inc (GNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.72 versus a price of $9.23, about +70% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GNL?
Our model-based fair value for Global Net Lease, Inc is $15.72 (as of Jul 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $9.23.
What is the quality score of GNL?
Global Net Lease, Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Global Net Lease, Inc (GNL)?
Global Net Lease, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $472M (latest available figure, as of Jul 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GNL?
The net profit margin of Global Net Lease, Inc is about -8.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Global Net Lease, Inc pay a dividend?
Global Net Lease, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.33% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 26, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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