EN DE
Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation

CME Group (CHME34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of CME Group BRL 58.53, price BRL 68.89, upside -15.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · BR · ISIN US12572Q1058

CG Broad data Sep 29, 2026

CME Group

CHME34 · SA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value R$58.53 · Overvalued (−15.0%)
✓Quality 64/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +19.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 63.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!1.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 72/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$366.45 R$22.57 Fair Value R$58.53 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$22.57 – R$366.45 · fair‑value band R$28.50 – R$97.29 · the R$68.89 price screens above the R$58.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services.

Show more

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock analysis

CME Group (CHME34) currently trades at R$68.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$58.53, 15.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$66.49 per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the R$68.89 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$13.91, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$28.50 (bear) to R$97.29 (bull), the price of R$68.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

CME Group reported revenue of $12.0B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was $4.1B in FY2025, compounding +11.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap R$446B (≈ $85.4B) · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 6.93 · EPS (TTM) R$15.19 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 34.1% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 81% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −15%, CHME34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$28.50 Fair Value R$58.53 Bull R$97.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$7.67 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$20.37 R$24.75 R$33.17 76
Growth DCF R$45.52 R$93.28 R$173.80 74
Owner Earnings R$46.03 R$96.68 R$197.05 71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings R$46.03 R$96.68 R$197.05 71
5Y P/E Exit R$33.80 R$62.09 R$96.65 69
10Y P/E Exit R$37.69 R$66.49 R$111.83 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$20.01 R$124.77 R$174.22 63
Lynch FV R$35.91 R$51.29 R$66.68 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$26.10 R$54.26 R$86.08 66
DDM Multi-Stage R$26.10 R$45.75 R$56.95 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$28.69 R$38.26 R$47.82 63
P/B Multiple R$21.80 R$29.07 R$36.33 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$10.38 R$13.91 R$20.76 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$45.52 R$93.28 R$173.80 74
Rev-Margin DCF R$23.12 R$37.69 R$58.41 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$20.37 R$24.75 R$33.17 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Notify me when CHME34 reaches fair value

Put CHME34 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 84%

CHME34 screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with S&P Global Inc →

Compare CME Group with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
S&P Global Inc SPGI $394.47 $216.54 −45%
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE $152.03 $138.87 −9%
Moody's Corporation MCO $460.08 $198.41 −57%
Deutsche Börse AG DB1 €287.30 €226.86 −21%
Coinbase Global, Inc COIN $189.29 $185.08 −2%
Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ $91.85 $41.61 −55%
MSCI Inc MSCI $539.76 $262.25 −51%
Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE $253.26 $247.55 −2%
Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 ¥204.10 ¥135.82 −33%
Singapore Exchange Limited S68 22.40 SGD 10.44 SGD −53%

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Financial Services stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

CME Group · Fair Value
R$58.53 −15%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CME Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHME34

Frequently asked questions

Is CME Group (CHME34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$58.53 versus a price of R$68.89, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHME34?
Our model-based fair value for CME Group is R$58.53 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$68.89.
What is the quality score of CHME34?
CME Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CME Group (CHME34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$58.53 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$28.50, optimistic scenario R$97.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CME Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$58.53, about −15% upside versus a price of R$68.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$28.50, optimistic scenario R$97.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CME Group (CHME34)?
CME Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does CME Group pay a dividend?
CME Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of CME Group (CHME34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CME Group it is R$58.53 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$68.89. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CME Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CHME34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$68.89, fair value R$58.53, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHME34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$68.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$58.53). For CME Group the two are R$10.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CME Group worth?
The market values CME Group at about R$446B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$68.89; our models calculate a fair value of R$58.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHME34?
Our models span a range for CME Group: cautious scenario R$28.50, base R$58.53, optimistic R$97.29 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$68.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CHME34 from its 52-week high?
CME Group trades at R$68.89, about 81% below its 52-week high of R$366.45 and 19% above the low of R$57.88 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$58.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CME Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, Deutsche Börse AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CME Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$68.89, calculated fair value R$58.53 (−15%), Quality Score 64/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHME34 calculated?
We run CME Group through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$58.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CME Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CME Group (CHME34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$68.89. Our model-based fair value is R$58.53, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CME Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide (R$28.50 to R$97.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of CME Group

How large is the market capitalisation of CME Group (CHME34)?
The market capitalisation of CME Group is R$446B (≈ $85.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of CME Group (CHME34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of CME Group is 20.3 (as of Jul 11, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of CME Group (CHME34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CME Group is 6.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CME Group (CHME34)?
Earnings per share at CME Group are R$15.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CME Group (CHME34)?
The dividend yield of CME Group is 1.6% (payout 7.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CME Group (CHME34)?
The net margin of CME Group is 34.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CME Group (CHME34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CME Group is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CME Group (CHME34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CME Group is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CME Group (CHME34)?
The operating margin of CME Group is 69.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CME Group (CHME34)?
Revenue at CME Group is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CME Group (CHME34)?
Earnings per share at CME Group are growing +21.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does CME Group (CHME34) generate?
The free cash flow of CME Group is $4.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CME Group (CHME34) carry?
The net debt of CME Group is $536M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Continue in the live analysis

Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Open the live analysis →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.