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CompX International Inc (CIX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of CompX International Inc $25.11, price $36.26, upside -30.8%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN US20563P1012

CI CompX International Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

CompX International Inc

CIX · US

Great Company, Expensive PriceHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.

!Fair value $25.11 · Overvalued (−31%)
✓Quality 78/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.31% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Weak on future: 4 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$38.49 $12.29 Fair Value $25.11 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.29 – $38.49 · fair‑value band $18.75 – $32.65 · the $36.26 price screens above the $25.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

CompX International Inc. manufactures and sells security products and recreational marine components primarily in North America. It operates in two segments, Security Products and Marine Components.

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CompX International Inc. manufactures and sells security products and recreational marine components primarily in North America. It operates in two segments, Security Products and Marine Components. The Security Products segment manufactures mechanical and electrical cabinet locks, and other locking mechanisms used in various applications, including ignition systems, mailboxes, file cabinets, desk drawers, tool storage cabinets, high security medical cabinetry, integrated inventory and access control secured narcotics boxes, electrical circuit panels, storage compartments, gas station security, and vending and cash containment machines. This segment also offers disc and pin tumbler locks; and CompX eLock and StealthLock electronic locks for drug storage and other valuables. The Marine Components segment manufactures and distributes wake enhancement systems, stainless steel exhaust components, gauges, throttle controls, and related hardware and accessories; trim tabs, steering wheels and billet aluminum accessories; original equipment and aftermarket stainless steel exhaust headers, exhaust pipes, mufflers and other exhaust components; GPS speedometers and tachometers; mechanical and electronic controls and throttles; dash panels, LED indicators and wire harnesses; and grab handles, pin cleats and other accessories; fabricated metal products; and related hardware and accessories for ski/wakeboard boats and performance boats, as well as for the recreational marine and other industries. The company offers its products to recreational transportation, postal, office and institutional furniture, cabinetry, tool storage, healthcare, and other industries. It sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers, as well as through distributors. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Dallas, Texas. CompX International Inc. operates as a subsidiary of NL Industries, Inc.

Stock analysis

CompX International Inc (CIX) currently trades at $36.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.11, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.51 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $36.26 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.54, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $18.75 (bear) to $32.65 (bull), the price of $36.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

CompX International Inc reported revenue of $158M in FY2025 versus $141M in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $19.5M in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $447M · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) $1.64 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −31%, CIX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $18.75 Fair Value $25.11 Bull $32.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3231 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $18.39 $22.21 $28.84 82
Growth DCF $18.75 $22.39 $28.20 80
Owner Earnings $18.57 $22.44 $29.15 78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $18.39 $22.21 $28.84 82
Owner Earnings $18.57 $22.44 $29.15 78
5Y Revenue Exit $18.95 $25.31 $34.54 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $20.64 $28.19 $38.16 76
5Y P/E Exit $22.68 $31.65 $42.30 71
10Y Revenue Exit $18.22 $23.40 $29.29 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $19.55 $25.14 $31.46 70
10Y P/E Exit $20.69 $27.23 $33.95 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $10.75 $18.45 $22.55 67
EPV $14.94 $16.38 $17.58 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $17.09 $20.76 $24.28 69
DDM Multi-Stage $17.09 $21.84 $26.99 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $24.89 $33.19 $41.49 63
P/S Multiple $19.27 $25.69 $32.11 58
P/B Multiple $20.15 $26.87 $33.59 55
EV/EBIT $27.78 $35.57 $43.37 66
EV/EBITDA $25.16 $32.09 $39.01 67
EV/Revenue $20.57 $27.51 $34.45 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.62 $7.54 $11.25 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $18.75 $22.39 $28.20 80
Rev-Margin DCF $18.95 $25.59 $33.86 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.40 $12.02 $18.33 75
ROIC Compounder $15.08 $16.76 $18.45 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $17.58 $25.11 $32.65 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 78/100

Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 63
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 89
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.6% a year for the price.

CIX screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Verisure plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.82× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 23.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 14.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)4 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)56 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)66 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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The GEO Group GEO $29.74 $12.89 −57%
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CompX International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CIX

Frequently asked questions

Is CompX International Inc (CIX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.11 versus a price of $36.26, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CIX?
Our model-based fair value for CompX International Inc is $25.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.26.
What is the quality score of CIX?
CompX International Inc has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CompX International Inc (CIX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.75, optimistic scenario $32.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CompX International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.11, about −31% upside versus a price of $36.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.75, optimistic scenario $32.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
CompX International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $159M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does CompX International Inc pay a dividend?
CompX International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into CompX International Inc (CIX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CompX International Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CIX use?
Our models discount CompX International Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CompX International Inc that is +13.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CompX International Inc (CIX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CompX International Inc grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +13.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CompX International Inc (CIX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CompX International Inc (+13.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.28 %: that much free cash flow CompX International Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CompX International Inc it is $25.11 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $36.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CompX International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CIX trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.26, fair value $25.11, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.11). For CompX International Inc the two are $11.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CompX International Inc worth?
The market values CompX International Inc at about $447M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $36.26; our models calculate a fair value of $25.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIX?
Our models span a range for CompX International Inc: cautious scenario $18.75, base $25.11, optimistic $32.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $36.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CIX?
CompX International Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
Balance-sheet figures for CompX International Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIX from its 52-week high?
CompX International Inc trades at $36.26, about 6% below its 52-week high of $38.49 and 83% above the low of $19.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CompX International Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CompX International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $36.26, calculated fair value $25.11 (−31%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CIX calculated?
We run CompX International Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CompX International Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $36.26. Our model-based fair value is $25.11, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CompX International Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of CompX International Inc (CIX) come from?
Earnings per share at CompX International Inc grew +8.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of CompX International Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The market capitalisation of CompX International Inc is $447M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CompX International Inc is 2.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
Earnings per share at CompX International Inc are $1.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The dividend yield of CompX International Inc is 3.3% (payout 73.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The net margin of CompX International Inc is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CompX International Inc is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CompX International Inc is 12.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CompX International Inc (CIX)?
The operating margin of CompX International Inc is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CompX International Inc (CIX)?
Revenue at CompX International Inc is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CompX International Inc (CIX)?
Earnings per share at CompX International Inc are growing +14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CompX International Inc (CIX) hold?
CompX International Inc holds more cash than debt, $54.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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