Central Japan Railway Company (CJPRF) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $22.9B
Central Japan Railway Company
CJPRF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −6.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 65% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($30.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($30.87 to $80.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.58 – $39.97 · fair‑value band $30.87 – $80.35 · the $22.50 price screens below the $37.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Central Japan Railway Company (CJPRF) currently trades at $22.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.19, implying the stock looks roughly 65.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Central Japan Railway Company generated revenue of $2.0T at a net margin of 27.6%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.5%. Net debt stands at $3.1T. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $30.87 (bear case) to $80.35 (bull case); at $22.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 65%, CJPRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($74.73) versus Growth DCF ($6.51). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Central Japan Railway Company engages in the railway and related businesses in Japan. The company operates through Transportation, Distribution, and Real Estate segments. It operates Tokaido Shinkansen, a transportation artery that links metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka; and department stores within JR Central Towers, as well as bus operations.
Full company description
Central Japan Railway Company engages in the railway and related businesses in Japan. The company operates through Transportation, Distribution, and Real Estate segments. It operates Tokaido Shinkansen, a transportation artery that links metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka; and department stores within JR Central Towers, as well as bus operations. The company is also involved in sale of goods on board trains and within stations; renting real estate properties, such as station buildings; sale of real estate in condominiums; and manufacturing and maintain of railway rolling stock and machinery. In addition, it engages in hotel, travel, and advertising business. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Central Japan Railway Company reported revenue of $2.0T in FY2026 versus $935B in FY2022, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was $556B in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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