CKI.TO (CKI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what CKI.TO is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$8.25 – C$36.49 · fair‑value band C$15.04 – C$21.31 · the C$22.90 price screens above the C$15.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Clarke Inc. is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in investments in middle market, turnaround, PIPEs, bridge financing, recapitalization, and buyout companies. It invests in undervalued or underperforming businesses with hard assets.
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Clarke Inc. is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in investments in middle market, turnaround, PIPEs, bridge financing, recapitalization, and buyout companies. It invests in undervalued or underperforming businesses with hard assets. It invests in companies, securities or other assets such as real estate, which can be public or private entities. The firm primarily invests equity, debt and other securities. It invests in industries that have hard assets, including manufacturing, industrial, energy, materials, and real estate businesses. The firm invests in debt and equity securities of companies engaged in the oil and gas industry. It prefers to purchase well-priced equity securities rather than well-priced debt securities, and securities of oil service firms rather than E&P firms. The firm primarily invests in companies in Canada and United states of America. It seeks active involvement in the governance and/or management of the company it invests in. The firm may participate in Portfolio Company's board of directors. It makes balance sheet investments. Clarke Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Halifax, Canada.
Stock analysis
CKI.TO (CKI) currently trades at C$22.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$15.04, implying the stock looks roughly 52.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$46.63 per share, and 4 of the 18 models we run sit above the C$22.90 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$10.58, and 14 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$15.04 (bear) to C$21.31 (bull), the price of C$22.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CKI.TO reported revenue of C$81.6M in FY2025 versus C$60.0M in FY2021, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$13.0M in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$315M (≈ $224M) · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) C$2.19 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 16.0% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −34%, CKI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$15.04Fair Value C$15.04Bull C$21.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.59 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
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’21
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+25.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs −11%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−112% → 15%
2025 sits 287% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 163 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.56× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.75× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.62× · Pricier than median
P/FCF51.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 10
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)72· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CKI.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CKI
Frequently asked questions
Is CKI.TO (CKI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$15.04 versus a price of C$22.90, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CKI?
Our model-based fair value for CKI.TO is C$15.04 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$22.90.
What is the quality score of CKI?
CKI.TO has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CKI.TO (CKI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$15.04 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$15.04, optimistic scenario C$21.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CKI.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$15.04, about −34% upside versus a price of C$22.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$15.04, optimistic scenario C$21.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CKI.TO (CKI)?
CKI.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$82.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does CKI.TO pay a dividend?
CKI.TO currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into CKI.TO (CKI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CKI.TO would have to grow free cash flow by +48.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.4 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CKI use?
Our models discount CKI.TO at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CKI.TO that is +48.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CKI.TO (CKI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CKI.TO grew +32.4 % a year. The price currently implies +48.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CKI.TO (CKI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CKI.TO (+48.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.33 %: that much free cash flow CKI.TO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CKI.TO (CKI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CKI.TO it is C$15.04 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of C$22.90. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CKI.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CKI trades above its calculated fair value: price C$22.90, fair value C$15.04, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CKI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$22.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$15.04). For CKI.TO the two are C$7.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CKI.TO worth?
The market values CKI.TO at about C$315M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is C$22.90; our models calculate a fair value of C$15.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CKI?
Our models span a range for CKI.TO: cautious scenario C$15.04, base C$15.04, optimistic C$21.31 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price C$22.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CKI?
CKI.TO trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$15.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of CKI.TO (CKI)?
Balance-sheet figures for CKI.TO (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CKI from its 52-week high?
CKI.TO trades at C$22.90, about 37% below its 52-week high of C$36.50 and 22% above the low of C$18.76 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$15.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CKI.TO?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CKI.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price C$22.90, calculated fair value C$15.04 (−34%), Quality Score 43/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CKI calculated?
We run CKI.TO through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$15.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CKI.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was C$22.90. Our model-based fair value is C$15.04, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CKI.TO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$21.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of CKI.TO (CKI) come from?
Earnings per share at CKI.TO grew −9.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin −11.1 %, tax rate −2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CKI.TO
How large is the market capitalisation of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The market capitalisation of CKI.TO is C$315M (≈ $224M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CKI.TO is 1.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CKI.TO (CKI)?
Earnings per share at CKI.TO are C$2.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The dividend yield of CKI.TO is 0.2% (payout 1.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The net margin of CKI.TO is 16.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CKI.TO is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CKI.TO (CKI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CKI.TO is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CKI.TO (CKI)?
The operating margin of CKI.TO is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CKI.TO (CKI)?
Revenue at CKI.TO is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CKI.TO (CKI)?
Earnings per share at CKI.TO are growing +33.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CKI.TO (CKI) carry?
The net debt of CKI.TO is C$285M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 68.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026