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Cloetta AB (CLA-B) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · SE · Market cap 14.0B SEK (≈ $1.5B) · ISIN SE0002626861

What is Cloetta AB really worth?

CA Cloetta AB CLA-B · ST
Pricekr 56.30
Fair Valuekr 59.12
Upside+5.0%
Quality72/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of kr 59.12.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.7% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 53/100
!Weak on future: 18 out of 100

For context

·2.49% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range kr 38.79 – kr 73.91

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +1.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (kr 38.79 to kr 73.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 57.75 kr 14.60 Fair Value kr 59.12 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 14.60 – kr 57.75 · fair‑value band kr 38.79 – kr 73.91 · the kr 56.30 price screens below the kr 59.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Cloetta AB (CLA-B) currently trades at kr 56.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 59.12, implying the stock looks roughly 4.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 60.93 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 56.30 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 13.61, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cloetta AB generated revenue of 8.6B SEK at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at 868M SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 38.79 (bear case) to kr 73.91 (bull case); at kr 56.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 5%, CLA-B screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 0.8357 per share, which is 1.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF kr 36.74 kr 61.41 kr 100.73 78
Growth DCF kr 37.10 kr 61.31 kr 99.75 77
Owner Earnings kr 36.44 kr 60.93 kr 99.95 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 36.74 kr 61.41 kr 100.73 78
Owner Earnings kr 36.44 kr 60.93 kr 99.95 75
5Y Revenue Exit kr 31.34 kr 52.10 kr 78.96 72
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 40.80 kr 70.37 kr 105.66 74
5Y P/E Exit kr 37.41 kr 63.82 kr 92.28 70
10Y Revenue Exit kr 31.88 kr 51.61 kr 79.03 66
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 38.99 kr 64.52 kr 100.02 67
10Y P/E Exit kr 36.81 kr 59.89 kr 89.49 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 19.15 kr 68.99 kr 93.00 64
Lynch FV kr 16.32 kr 23.31 kr 30.31 61
PEG = 1.0 kr 16.32 kr 23.31 kr 30.31 57
EPV kr 30.25 kr 35.65 kr 40.37 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 10.23 kr 21.27 kr 33.74 66
DDM Multi-Stage kr 10.23 kr 17.93 kr 22.32 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 44.34 kr 59.12 kr 73.91 63
P/S Multiple kr 35.90 kr 47.86 kr 59.83 58
P/B Multiple kr 35.90 kr 47.86 kr 59.83 55
EV/EBIT kr 51.53 kr 69.42 kr 87.32 66
EV/EBITDA kr 47.88 kr 64.56 kr 81.24 67
EV/Revenue kr 29.70 kr 43.36 kr 57.01 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 10.15 kr 13.61 kr 20.31 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 37.10 kr 61.31 kr 99.75 77
Rev-Margin DCF kr 31.34 kr 52.04 kr 76.84 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 19.74 kr 24.73 kr 57.29 70
ROIC Compounder kr 32.91 kr 43.82 kr 57.93 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 31.05 kr 44.35 kr 57.66 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 60.93) versus Asset-Based (kr 13.61). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.0
P/S ratio 1.95 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) kr 2.63 price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.0
Dividend yield 2.5% payout 53.2%
Net margin 9.3% FY2025
Return on equity 13.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 13.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 8.6B SEK TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.6% 3y avg +7.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −17.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 924M SEK FY2025
Net debt 868M SEK FY2025 · ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Cloetta AB (publ) operates as a confectionery company. The company operates through Branded Packaged Products and Pick & Mix segments.

Full company description

Cloetta AB (publ) operates as a confectionery company. The company operates through Branded Packaged Products and Pick & Mix segments. It manufactures and markets chocolate confectionery products, including pralines, chocolate wafers, dragees, plates, and countlines under the Kexchoklad, Polly, Plopp, Tupla, Royal, Sportlunch, Bridge, Lonka, Sinas, CandyKing and Snippers brand names. The company also provides candy products comprising foams, wine gums, liquorice, toffees, hard boiled candies, and lollypops under the Malaco, Red Band, Ahlgrens Bilar, Gott & Blandat, Venco, Chewits, and Juleskum brand names. In addition, it offers pastilles under the Läkerol, Mynthon, and King brands, as well as chewing gums under the Jenkki, Sportlife, and Xylifresh brands. Further, the company trades nuts under the Parrot's brand. It sells its products through a network of grocery retail trade, and service trade including convenience stores, e-commerce, and other sales channels in Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Cloetta AB (publ) was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Sundbyberg, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cloetta AB reported revenue of 8.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 6.0B SEK in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 791M SEK in FY2025, compounding +13.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
8.5B SEK
Latest YoY
−1.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+13.6% (11.1 + 2.5)
Revenue +9.0%/yr
FY21 6.0B SEK
FY22 6.9B SEK
FY23 8.3B SEK
FY24 8.6B SEK
FY25 8.5B SEK
Net income +13.8%/yr
FY21 472M SEK
FY22 275M SEK
FY23 437M SEK
FY24 477M SEK
FY25 791M SEK
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.7 %

of which total revenue +4.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %

EBIT margin −0.6 %
Tax rate +0.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cloetta AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CLA-B

Peer Group

Confectioners · 80 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +5% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.24× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.46× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.63× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.7× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE40 · sector 25
FUTURE18 · sector 0
PAST52 · sector 21
HEALTH88 · sector 92
DIVIDEND50 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN CHF 90,700 CHF 9,281 −90%
Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ $62.36 $27.36 −56%
The Hershey Company HSY $179.05 $91.25 −49%
Barry Callebaut AG BARN CHF 1,115 CHF 711.91 −36%
ORION Corp 271560 124,600 KRW 203,315 KRW +63%
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB $39.00 $22.21 −43%
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 ¥20.48 ¥9.09 −56%
Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN ₹652.15 ₹318.59 −51%
PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI 1,295 IDR 1,140 IDR −12%
ORION Holdings 001800 25,300 KRW 42,237 KRW +67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cloetta AB (CLA-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 59.12 versus a price of kr 56.30, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CLA-B?
Our model-based fair value for Cloetta AB is kr 59.12 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 56.30.
What is the quality score of CLA-B?
Cloetta AB has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cloetta AB (CLA-B)?
Cloetta AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.6B SEK (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CLA-B?
The net profit margin of Cloetta AB is about 8.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Cloetta AB pay a dividend?
Cloetta AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.49% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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