Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Canadian National Railway Company stock $100, price $129, that is 22.4% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $88.77 – $129.87 · fair‑value band $53.00 – $154.73 · the $128.97 price screens above the $100.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.
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The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services.
It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications.
Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Stock analysis
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) currently trades at $128.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $100.13, 22% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $137.75 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $128.97 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $23.36, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $53.00 (bear) to $154.73 (bull), the price of $128.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Canadian National Railway Company reported revenue of $17.3B in FY2025 versus $14.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $78.3B Large · P/E ratio 22.5 · P/S ratio 6.13 · EPS (TTM) $5.74 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 27.3% · Return on equity 22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −22%, CNI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$53.00Fair Value $100.13Bull$154.73
Price $128.97 · Downside -22.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.79 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.2% vs 5.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 38%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.6% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Durable network scale and pricing power support a solid moat, while limited R&D intensity versus tech peers and commodity exposure remain the main constraints.
Main risk: CPKC's integrated Canada-US-Mexico corridor could capture intermodal and agricultural volumes from CN's tri-coastal network, pressuring prices and margins on north-south lanes.
Bull case: CN could leverage its network scale and AI-driven efficiency gains to retain or regain share against CPKC while adapting to regulatory caps through diversified freight and operational resilience.
Bear case: Sustained share loss to CPKC's single-line offering and repeated regulatory penalties could erode CN's pricing power and force costly network adjustments, squeezing long-term margins on core bulk and intermodal traffic.
Canadian National set a new record moving 7.94 million tonnes of Western Canadian grain in the third quarter. As North America's northernmost major railroad it now faces the test of carrying that momentum through winter with its updated operations plan focused on equipment reliability and rapid response. Will the recent volume strength persist or will seasonal challenges cap further gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−22.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)26.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)41.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.94× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Canadian National Railway Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNI
Frequently asked questions
Is Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $100.13 versus a price of $128.97, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNI?
Our model-based fair value for Canadian National Railway Company is $100.13 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $128.97.
What is the quality score of CNI?
Canadian National Railway Company has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $100.13 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $53.00, optimistic scenario $154.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canadian National Railway Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $100.13, about 22% lower versus a price of $128.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $53.00, optimistic scenario $154.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
Canadian National Railway Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Canadian National Railway Company pay a dividend?
Canadian National Railway Company currently shows a dividend yield of 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Canadian National Railway Company would have to grow free cash flow by +15.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNI use?
Our models discount Canadian National Railway Company at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Canadian National Railway Company that is +15.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Canadian National Railway Company grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +15.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Canadian National Railway Company (+15.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.32 %: that much free cash flow Canadian National Railway Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canadian National Railway Company it is $100.13 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $128.97. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Canadian National Railway Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CNI trades above its calculated fair value: price $128.97, fair value $100.13, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($128.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($100.13). For Canadian National Railway Company the two are $28.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canadian National Railway Company worth?
The market values Canadian National Railway Company at about $78.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $128.97; our models calculate a fair value of $100.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNI?
Our models span a range for Canadian National Railway Company: cautious scenario $53.00, base $100.13, optimistic $154.73 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $128.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNI?
Canadian National Railway Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $100.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 3.6, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CNI?
The PEG ratio of Canadian National Railway Company is 2.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Canadian National Railway Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 22.5%, debt of 0.94 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNI from its 52-week high?
Canadian National Railway Company trades at $128.97, about 1% below its 52-week high of $129.87 and 45% above the low of $88.77 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $100.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canadian National Railway Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canadian National Railway Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $128.97, calculated fair value $100.13 (−22%), Quality Score 68/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNI calculated?
We run Canadian National Railway Company through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $100.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Canadian National Railway Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $128.97. Our model-based fair value is $100.13, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canadian National Railway Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($53.00 to $154.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) come from?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Company grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Canadian National Railway Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The market capitalisation of Canadian National Railway Company is $78.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canadian National Railway Company is 6.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Company are $5.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The dividend yield of Canadian National Railway Company is 2.8% (payout 63.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The net margin of Canadian National Railway Company is 27.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canadian National Railway Company is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canadian National Railway Company is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
The operating margin of Canadian National Railway Company is 41.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
Revenue at Canadian National Railway Company is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Company are growing +9.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) carry?
The net debt of Canadian National Railway Company is $21.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026