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China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 11, 2026: fair value of China Overseas Property Holdings $1.20, price $0.48, upside +149.7%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Real Estate · US · ISIN KYG2118M1096

CO China Overseas Property Holdings logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

China Overseas Property Holdings

CNPPF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $1.20 · Strongly undervalued (+149.7%)
✓Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +20.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 60/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1.37 $0.0756 Fair Value $1.20 Nov 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0756 – $1.37 · fair‑value band $0.8170 – $1.83 · the $0.4806 price screens below the $1.20 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

China Overseas Property Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Property Management Services, Value-Added Services, and Car Parking Space Trading Business.

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China Overseas Property Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides property management services in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. It operates through three segments: Property Management Services, Value-Added Services, and Car Parking Space Trading Business. The Property Management Services segment offers security, repair and maintenance, cleaning, and garden landscape maintenance services to residential communities, commercial properties, government properties, and construction sites. The Value-Added Services segment provides engineering services, vetting of building plans, facilities and equipment evaluation proposals, pre-delivery and move-in assistance, delivery inspection, and engineering service quality monitoring and consulting services for property developers and other property management companies. It also provides community asset management services, such as rental assistance, agency and custody services for real estate transactions, common area rental assistance, and rental of its own properties, as well as home living service operations for residents and commercial service operations. The Car Parking Space Trading Business segment engages in the trading of various car parking spaces. The company is also involved in the provision of services through an online-to-offline platform and in trademark holding activities. The company was formerly known as China Overseas Management Services International Limited and changed its name to China Overseas Property Holdings Limited in May 2015. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Hong Kong. China Overseas Property Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Overseas Holdings Limited.

Stock analysis

China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF) currently trades at $0.4806, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.20, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.79 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the $0.4806 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2000, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.8170 (bear) to $1.83 (bull), the price of $0.4806 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

China Overseas Property Holdings reported revenue of 16.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +10.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $0.0600 · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.0% · Operating margin 9.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 150%, CNPPF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.8170 Fair Value $1.20 Bull $1.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.9100 $1.26 $2.14 79
Growth DCF $0.8800 $1.32 $2.05 77
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.29 $2.26 $3.88 73
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.9100 $1.26 $2.14 79
5Y Revenue Exit $1.07 $1.79 $3.07 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.29 $2.26 $3.88 73
10Y Revenue Exit $0.9800 $1.71 $2.70 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.14 $2.06 $3.73 65
Multiples
P/S Multiple $0.8600 $1.15 $1.43 58
P/B Multiple $0.4400 $0.5900 $0.7400 55
EV/EBIT $1.81 $2.31 $2.80 66
EV/EBITDA $1.54 $1.94 $2.35 67
EV/Revenue $1.14 $1.49 $1.85 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1500 $0.2000 $0.3000 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.8800 $1.32 $2.05 77
Rev-Margin DCF $1.07 $1.83 $2.94 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.3800 $0.5100 $0.9100 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 27
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+24.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.75.2% vs 58.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 12%
2025 sits 760% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 530 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside +139.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 24.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 35.7% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.0× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.5× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 232,000 VND 25,731 VND −89%
CBRE Group CBRE $134.55 $91.06 −32%
KE Holdings 2423 HK$42.92 HK$17.16 −60%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.32 HK$13.39 −45%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €23.99 €23.94 +0%
Vonovia SE VNA €16.82 €36.55 +117%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $308.07 $540.65 +75%
Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 HK$30.54 HK$27.42 −10%
CoStar Group CSGP $26.95 $6.19 −77%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$37.00 HK$56.36 +52%

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$1.20 +60%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Overseas Property Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNPPF

Frequently asked questions

Is China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.20 versus the last price from Sep 11, 2026 of $0.4806, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CNPPF?
Our model-based fair value for China Overseas Property Holdings is $1.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 11, 2026): $0.4806.
What is the quality score of CNPPF?
China Overseas Property Holdings has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8170, optimistic scenario $1.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Overseas Property Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.20, about +150% upside versus the last price from Sep 11, 2026 of $0.4806 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.8170, optimistic scenario $1.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
China Overseas Property Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 15.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Overseas Property Holdings it is $1.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.4806. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Overseas Property Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CNPPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.4806, fair value $1.20, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNPPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4806); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.20). For China Overseas Property Holdings the two are $0.7194 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Overseas Property Holdings worth?
The market values China Overseas Property Holdings at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.4806; our models calculate a fair value of $1.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNPPF?
Our models span a range for China Overseas Property Holdings: cautious scenario $0.8170, base $1.20, optimistic $1.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.4806). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNPPF?
China Overseas Property Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.20 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Overseas Property Holdings (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 24.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNPPF from its 52-week high?
China Overseas Property Holdings trades at $0.4806, about 30% below its 52-week high of $0.6863 and 12% above the low of $0.4304 (as of Sep 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Overseas Property Holdings?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Overseas Property Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.4806, calculated fair value $1.20 (+150%), Quality Score 62/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNPPF calculated?
We run China Overseas Property Holdings through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Overseas Property Holdings currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 11, 2026 and stands at $0.4806. Our model-based fair value is $1.20, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Overseas Property Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.8170). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.8170 to $1.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF) come from?
Earnings per share at China Overseas Property Holdings grew +34.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +25.7 %, EBIT margin +6.3 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Overseas Property Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
The market capitalisation of China Overseas Property Holdings is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Overseas Property Holdings is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
Earnings per share at China Overseas Property Holdings are $0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
The net margin of China Overseas Property Holdings is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Overseas Property Holdings is 24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Overseas Property Holdings is 16.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
The operating margin of China Overseas Property Holdings is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
Revenue at China Overseas Property Holdings is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF)?
Earnings per share at China Overseas Property Holdings are growing −23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF) generate?
The free cash flow of China Overseas Property Holdings is 1.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Overseas Property Holdings (CNPPF) hold?
China Overseas Property Holdings holds more cash than debt, 6.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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