Coronado Global Resources Inc (CODQL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $310M
Coronado Global Resources Inc
CODQL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 31, 2026, revised from $0.0400 to $0.0800 (+100.0%) since Jun 26, 2026.
Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1000). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0081 – $1.43 · fair‑value band $0.0800 – $0.1000 · the $0.1821 price screens above the $0.0800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
Coronado Global Resources Inc (CODQL) currently trades at $0.1821, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0800, implying the stock looks roughly 56.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Coronado Global Resources Inc generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of -33.3%. Revenue grew 4.0% year over year. Net debt stands at $652M. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0800 (bear case) to $0.1000 (bull case); at $0.1821, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -56%, CODQL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($0.2600) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0400). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Coronado Global Resources Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and exports metallurgical coal in Asia, North America, South America, Europe, and Australia.
Full company description
Coronado Global Resources Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and exports metallurgical coal in Asia, North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. The company owns 100% interests in the Curragh mining property located in the Bowen Basin of Queensland, Australia; and the Buchanan and the Logan properties, as well as development mining properties comprising the Mon Valley and the Russell County properties primarily located in the Central Appalachian region of the United States. It also owns and controls a portfolio of operating mines and development projects in Queensland, Australia. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia. Coronado Global Resources Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Coronado Group LLC.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Coronado Global Resources Inc reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$447M in FY2025.
CODQL screens 56% overvalued. Compare with PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, →
Peer Group
Coking Coal · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,515 IDR | 1,267 IDR | -16% |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC | $78.91 | $18.35 | -77% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.34 | ¥1.24 | -63% |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR | $143.80 | $45.29 | -69% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.39 | HK$2.34 | -2% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.54 | ¥1.75 | -51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.41 | ¥1.72 | -68% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $12.80 | $1.74 | -86% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.63 | ¥1.91 | -27% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $8.37 | $3.67 | -56% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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