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Cogna Educacao SA ADR (COGNY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $820M · ISIN US19243N1063

What is Cogna Educacao SA ADR really worth?

CE Cogna Educacao SA ADR logo Cogna Educacao SA ADR COGNY · US
Price$0.4495
Fair Value$1.30
Upside+189.2%
Quality60/100

A solid business, trading 65% below our fair value of $1.30.

As of Aug 18, 2026, the fair value of Cogna Educacao SA ADR is $1.30 per share against a price of $0.4495, so the fair value sits 189% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.5 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (12/14)

Risks

!Thin margins · 8.9% net margin
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100

For context

·23.14% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range $0.9400 – $1.62

Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Share price +8.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.9400). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$0.8756 $0.1707 Fair Value $1.30 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1707 – $0.8756 · fair‑value band $0.9400 – $1.62 · the $0.4495 price screens below the $1.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Cogna Educacao SA ADR (COGNY) currently trades at $0.4495, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.30, implying the stock looks roughly 65.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.93 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.4495 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.7500, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cogna Educacao SA ADR generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue grew 31.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at $6.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.9400 (bear case) to $1.62 (bull case); at $0.4495, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 189%, COGNY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $4.25 $8.29 $14.51 77
Growth DCF $4.15 $7.68 $12.77 76
Residual Income $4.77 $4.64 $3.97 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.25 $8.29 $14.51 77
Owner Earnings $5.68 $10.69 $18.41 74
5Y Revenue Exit $2.28 $4.60 $7.63 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $6.37 $13.05 $21.50 72
5Y P/E Exit $3.41 $6.93 $10.93 69
10Y Revenue Exit $2.89 $5.23 $8.63 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $5.45 $10.90 $19.27 65
10Y P/E Exit $3.65 $6.80 $11.16 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.08 $9.84 $13.54 64
Lynch FV $2.61 $3.73 $4.85 61
PEG = 1.0 $2.61 $3.73 $4.85 57
EPV $3.16 $3.83 $4.38 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.4600 $0.8300 $1.14 68
DDM Multi-Stage $0.4600 $0.7500 $0.8800 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $5.06 $6.74 $8.43 63
P/S Multiple $3.10 $4.13 $5.16 58
P/B Multiple $3.91 $5.21 $6.51 55
EV/EBIT $7.42 $10.46 $13.50 65
EV/EBITDA $8.50 $11.90 $15.30 67
EV/Revenue $1.19 $2.43 $3.67 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.36 $4.50 $6.72 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.15 $7.68 $12.77 76
Rev-Margin DCF $2.28 $4.60 $7.63 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $4.77 $4.64 $3.97 76
ROIC Compounder $3.16 $3.83 $4.38 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $4.23 $6.04 $7.85 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($6.93) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.4
P/S ratio 0.57 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.0700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4
Net margin 8.9% FY2025
Return on equity 4.7% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 19.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $7.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +31.9% 3y avg +11.2%
EPS growth (YoY) −72.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.1B FY2025
Net debt $6.6B FY2025 · ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Cogna Educação S.A. operates as an educational organization in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Kroton, Vasta, and Saber. The company provides in-person and distance learning for higher education and postgraduate courses; and editing, marketing, and distribution of textbooks, paradidactic books and handouts.

Full company description

Cogna Educação S.A. operates as an educational organization in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Kroton, Vasta, and Saber. The company provides in-person and distance learning for higher education and postgraduate courses; and editing, marketing, and distribution of textbooks, paradidactic books and handouts. It also offers basic education, pre-university preparatory courses, and language courses; educational solutions for technical and higher education; and complementary activities, such as education technology development for services to complement management and training. In addition, the company advises on and/or facilitates direct and indirect financing for students; and develops software for adaptive teaching and academic management optimization. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cogna Educacao SA ADR reported revenue of R$6.9B in FY2025 versus R$4.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$613M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$6.9B
Latest YoY
+7.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+18.1% · in USD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+18.1%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 18.1% vs 10Y −9.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−22.6% (2020) → 19.6% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop480% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +9.5%/yr
FY21 R$4.8B
FY22 R$5.0B
FY23 R$5.8B
FY24 R$6.4B
FY25 R$6.9B
Net income
FY21 −R$489M
FY22 −R$529M
FY23 −R$493M
FY24 R$880M
FY25 R$613M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cogna Educacao SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COGNY

Peer Group

Education & Training Services · 142 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside +189% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Above median
Revenue growth 32% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 23.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.26× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 35
FUTURE100 · sector 24
PAST19 · sector 19
HEALTH87 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 65

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDU $58.22 $48.37 −17%
TAL Education Group TAL $12.40 $15.60 +26%
Laureate Education, Inc LAUR $38.36 $41.45 +8%
Physicswallah Limited PWL ₹119.46 ₹13.69 −89%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE $151.19 $152.01 +1%
Covista Inc CVSA $128.22 $135.45 +6%
Stride, Inc LRN $84.68 $139.45 +65%
Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI $25.64 $20.98 −18%
Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO $33.81 $40.65 +20%
Strategic Education, Inc STRA $81.90 $105.48 +29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cogna Educacao SA ADR (COGNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.30 versus a price of $0.4495, about +189% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COGNY?
Our model-based fair value for Cogna Educacao SA ADR is $1.30 (as of Aug 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.4495.
What is the quality score of COGNY?
Cogna Educacao SA ADR has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cogna Educacao SA ADR (COGNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.30 (as of Aug 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9400, optimistic scenario $1.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cogna Educacao SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.30, about +189% upside versus a price of $0.4495 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.9400, optimistic scenario $1.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cogna Educacao SA ADR (COGNY)?
Cogna Educacao SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of COGNY?
The net profit margin of Cogna Educacao SA ADR is about 8.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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