Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cogna Educacao SA stock $0.84, price $0.28, upside +200.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1707 – $0.8756 · fair‑value band $0.6334 – $1.05 · the $0.2800 price screens below the $0.8400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Cogna Educacao SA ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Cogna Educacao SA ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Cogna Educação S.A. operates as an educational organization in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Kroton, Vasta, and Saber.
Show moreShow less
The company provides in-person and distance learning for higher education and postgraduate courses; and editing, marketing, and distribution of textbooks, paradidactic books and handouts.
It also offers basic education, pre-university preparatory courses, and language courses; educational solutions for technical and higher education; and complementary activities, such as education technology development for services to complement management and training.
In addition, the company advises on and/or facilitates direct and indirect financing for students; and develops software for adaptive teaching and academic management optimization. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY) currently trades at $0.2800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8400, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $2.24 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.2800 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1700, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.6334 (bear) to $1.05 (bull), the price of $0.2800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cogna Educacao SA ADR reported revenue of R$6.9B in FY2025 versus R$4.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$613M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $561M Small · P/E ratio 4.0 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Dividend yield 8.1% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at 200%, COGNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.6334Fair Value $0.8400Bull$1.05
Price $0.2800 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0600 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +26.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 18.1% / −9.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 20%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.14 per share, median 1.00 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in BRL, Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.7% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)17.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)4.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.23× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cogna Educacao SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COGNY
Frequently asked questions
Is Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8400 versus a price of $0.2800, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COGNY?
Our model-based fair value for Cogna Educacao SA is $0.8400 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2800.
What is the quality score of COGNY?
Cogna Educacao SA has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8400 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6334, optimistic scenario $1.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cogna Educacao SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8400, about +200% upside versus a price of $0.2800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.6334, optimistic scenario $1.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
Cogna Educacao SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$7.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Cogna Educacao SA ADR pay a dividend?
Cogna Educacao SA currently shows a dividend yield of 8.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cogna Educacao SA has a dividend yield of 8.1%. The last ex-dividend date was May 8, 2026. The payout ratio is 19.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 9.47 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cogna Educacao SA would have to grow free cash flow by -15.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COGNY use?
Our models discount Cogna Educacao SA at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cogna Educacao SA that is -15.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cogna Educacao SA grew +5.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -15.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cogna Educacao SA (-15.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.26 %: that much free cash flow Cogna Educacao SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cogna Educacao SA it is $0.8400 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $0.2800. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cogna Educacao SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, COGNY trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2800, fair value $0.8400, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COGNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8400). For Cogna Educacao SA the two are $0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cogna Educacao SA ADR worth?
The market values Cogna Educacao SA at about $561M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $0.2800; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COGNY?
Our models span a range for Cogna Educacao SA: cautious scenario $0.6334, base $0.8400, optimistic $1.05 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $0.2800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COGNY?
Cogna Educacao SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.8400 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.7. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cogna Educacao SA (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COGNY from its 52-week high?
Cogna Educacao SA trades at $0.2800, about 68% below its 52-week high of $0.8756 and 12% above the low of $0.2500 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cogna Educacao SA ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, Physicswallah Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cogna Educacao SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $0.2800, calculated fair value $0.8400 (+200%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COGNY calculated?
We run Cogna Educacao SA through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.8400 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Cogna Educacao SA currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $0.2800. Our model-based fair value is $0.8400, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cogna Educacao SA ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.6334). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Cogna Educacao SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The market capitalisation of Cogna Educacao SA is $561M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cogna Educacao SA is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
Earnings per share at Cogna Educacao SA are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The dividend yield of Cogna Educacao SA is 8.1% (payout 32.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The net margin of Cogna Educacao SA is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cogna Educacao SA is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cogna Educacao SA is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
The operating margin of Cogna Educacao SA is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
Revenue at Cogna Educacao SA is growing +17.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY)?
Earnings per share at Cogna Educacao SA are growing +34.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cogna Educacao SA (COGNY) carry?
The net debt of Cogna Educacao SA is R$6.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Cogna Educacao SA ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Cogna Educacao SA ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026