CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what CPFL Energia S.A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$14.92 – R$52.39 · fair‑value band R$35.25 – R$103.85 · the R$45.23 price screens below the R$69.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
CPFL Energia S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in Brazil. It operates through Distribution, Generation, Transmission, Commercialization, and Services segments. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, solar, wind, and biomass sources.
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CPFL Energia S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in Brazil. It operates through Distribution, Generation, Transmission, Commercialization, and Services segments. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, solar, wind, and biomass sources. It also engages in operation and maintenance of electric energy transmission facilities; and commercialization of electricity. As of December 31, 2025, the company's distribution network consisted of 349,342 kilometers of distribution lines, as well as 12,154 kilometers of high voltage distribution lines; and 596 high voltage and medium voltage transformer substations with a total transformation capacity of 20,637 MVA. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The company was founded in 1912 and is based in Campinas, Brazil. CPFL Energia S.A. operates as a subsidiary of State Grid Brazil Power Participações S.A.
Stock analysis
CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) currently trades at R$45.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$69.34, implying the stock looks roughly 34.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$84.94 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$45.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$13.08, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$35.25 (bear) to R$103.85 (bull), the price of R$45.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CPFL Energia S.A reported revenue of R$44.4B in FY2025 versus R$39.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$5.5B in FY2025, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$52.1B (≈ $10.2B) · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) R$5.00 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 12.4% · Return on equity 24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 53%, CPFE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$35.25Fair Value R$69.34Bull R$103.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.9206 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 18%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 25%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (22 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+48% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)8.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CPFL Energia S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPFE3
Frequently asked questions
Is CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$69.34 versus a price of R$45.23, about +53% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CPFE3?
Our model-based fair value for CPFL Energia S.A is R$69.34 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$45.23.
What is the quality score of CPFE3?
CPFL Energia S.A has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$69.34 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$35.25, optimistic scenario R$103.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CPFL Energia S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$69.34, about +53% upside versus a price of R$45.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$35.25, optimistic scenario R$103.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
CPFL Energia S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$45.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does CPFL Energia S.A pay a dividend?
CPFL Energia S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CPFL Energia S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPFE3 use?
Our models discount CPFL Energia S.A at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CPFL Energia S.A that is +2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CPFL Energia S.A grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CPFL Energia S.A (+2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.03 %: that much free cash flow CPFL Energia S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CPFL Energia S.A it is R$69.34 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of R$45.23. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CPFL Energia S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, CPFE3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$45.23, fair value R$69.34, a gap of about +53% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPFE3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$45.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$69.34). For CPFL Energia S.A the two are R$24.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CPFL Energia S.A worth?
The market values CPFL Energia S.A at about R$52.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is R$45.23; our models calculate a fair value of R$69.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPFE3?
Our models span a range for CPFL Energia S.A: cautious scenario R$35.25, base R$69.34, optimistic R$103.85 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price R$45.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPFE3?
CPFL Energia S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$69.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.4, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CPFE3?
The PEG ratio of CPFL Energia S.A is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
Balance-sheet figures for CPFL Energia S.A (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 24.8%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPFE3 from its 52-week high?
CPFL Energia S.A trades at R$45.23, about 15% below its 52-week high of R$53.07 and 32% above the low of R$34.33 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$69.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CPFL Energia S.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, National Grid plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CPFL Energia S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price R$45.23, calculated fair value R$69.34 (+53%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPFE3 calculated?
We run CPFL Energia S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$69.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CPFL Energia S.A currently trades 53 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was R$45.23. Our model-based fair value is R$69.34, about +53% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CPFL Energia S.A right now?
The model range is unusually wide (R$35.25 to R$103.85). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) come from?
Earnings per share at CPFL Energia S.A grew +20.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin +8.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CPFL Energia S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The market capitalisation of CPFL Energia S.A is R$52.1B (≈ $10.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CPFL Energia S.A is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
Earnings per share at CPFL Energia S.A are R$5.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The dividend yield of CPFL Energia S.A is 8.3% (payout 74.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The net margin of CPFL Energia S.A is 12.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CPFL Energia S.A is 24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CPFL Energia S.A is 13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
The operating margin of CPFL Energia S.A is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
Revenue at CPFL Energia S.A is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3)?
Earnings per share at CPFL Energia S.A are growing +18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) carry?
The net debt of CPFL Energia S.A is R$26.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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