CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$54.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +0.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 87% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (R$46.25 to R$107.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$14.92 – R$52.39 · fair‑value band R$46.25 – R$107.09 · the R$45.85 price screens below the R$85.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
CPFL Energia S.A (CPFE3) currently trades at R$45.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$85.67, implying the stock looks roughly 86.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, CPFL Energia S.A generated revenue of R$45.1B at a net margin of 12.8%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.8%. Net debt stands at R$26.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$46.25 (bear case) to R$107.09 (bull case); at R$45.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 87%, CPFE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R$87.56) versus Asset-Based (R$13.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CPFL Energia S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in Brazil. It operates through Distribution, Generation, Transmission, Commercialization, and Services segments. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, solar, wind, and biomass sources.
Full company description
CPFL Energia S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in Brazil. It operates through Distribution, Generation, Transmission, Commercialization, and Services segments. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, solar, wind, and biomass sources. It also engages in operation and maintenance of electric energy transmission facilities; and commercialization of electricity. As of December 31, 2025, the company's distribution network consisted of 349,342 kilometers of distribution lines, as well as 12,154 kilometers of high voltage distribution lines; and 596 high voltage and medium voltage transformer substations with a total transformation capacity of 20,637 MVA. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The company was founded in 1912 and is based in Campinas, Brazil. CPFL Energia S.A. operates as a subsidiary of State Grid Brazil Power Participações S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CPFL Energia S.A reported revenue of R$44.4B in FY2025 versus R$39.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$5.5B in FY2025, compounding +3.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CPFL Energia (BOVESPA:CPFE3) Stock Draws Fresh Price Target Split On Revenue And Margin Revisions
- How The CPFL Energia (BOVESPA:CPFE3) Investment Story Is Shifting With A Subtle Valuation Reset
- How The CPFL Energia (BOVESPA:CPFE3) Story Is Shifting With The New R$47.84 Target
- How The CPFL Energia (BOVESPA:CPFE3) Investment Story Is Evolving Around A Steady R$46.62 Target
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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